The return of the PGA Tour sure was exciting. And, if last weekend was any indicator of just how tight the field is going to be for some time moving forward, buckle up! The highs and lows were fun to watch from a spectator and a gambler’s point of view, and it was Daniel Berger who got to the winner’s circle finally in the +6600 range. Now we set our sights on the RBC Heritage with our latest picks and parlays, a tournament which features another really loaded field on an interesting course.
RBC Heritage Picks & Parlays
Harbour Town is one of the more “interesting” stops on tour. It’s a par 71 that comes in around 7,100 yards. The course plays similarly to the Colonial, which we saw last week. Similar players tend to play well at both places, so that is something to keep in mind when making your bets this weekend.
One thing to keep an eye on is the wind, which definitely will alter shots in this course. Harbour Town also tends to take the driver out of play more than Colonial, so try to look for the surgeons not the bombers when putting your gambling card together.
Finding a winner in golf is already hard enough under normal circumstances, but after a layoff, it does lean towards becoming a crapshoot. What we can do though is research and use data to our benefit. So, let’s get to it. Here are my three picks to win this weekend’s event outright, including a dark horse.
Webb Simpson +3000
Yes, I got burned by Simpson last week, but I’m not going to let one bad round after a three-month layoff sour me on Simpson. He has made nine straight weekends and had six top-20s in nine tries over the last decade here at the RBC Heritage so with that consistency definitely worth a pick!
Simpson’s game is built for this track. Harbour Town favors consistent ball-strikers and solid short games. That’s about the definition of Webb’s game. Because of his poor showing last weekend, this is an overreaction. We are getting some great value here on Simpson.
Sungjae Im (30-1)
Look at Im’s stats, he is arguably the most consistent player in the world right now. Let’s not forget that he was on the biggest heater prior to the layoff. He gained in every category and quietly finished in the top-10 at the Charles Schwab last weekend. That is three straight top-10 finishes, including a win at the Honda Classic. Sungjae was also in the top-30 in strokes gained/ off-the-tee and on his approach last week. You have to be a precision player to win here, which is exactly what Im is. While everyone else is still knocking off the rust, Im has been playing. Some nice odds here for a player of his consistency.
Kevin Kisner +5500
Kisner has a stout record at Harbour Town, where he has three top-11 finishes in his past seven starts as a whole and over his last five starts at Hilton Head. I love that he is a South Carolina native and grew up playing Jr. tournaments here. With everyone else still dealing with rust and getting back into the swing of things, knowing this course for the RBC Heritage is definitely an advantage for Kisner so looks a solid pick.
Abraham Ancer +6600
I sprinkled some money on Ancer last weekend and it almost paid off. He had a great weekend and was up on the leaderboard Sunday. If my darkhorse has a chance come Sunday, I’ll take it. This course runs similar to last weekend’s, so let’s do this again.
Ancer is a precision player, and his ball-striking was elite last week. He gained nearly seven strokes on the field off-the-tee and nearly five strokes on approaches. His game will play well at the RBC Heritage which is why we pick him as out longshot again. And, with people still fine tuning their games, look for him to hang around the pack all weekend long, as he is still hungry for his first tour win. Taking him to win it all at these odds is too good to pass up.