We’re back with our NFL Week 4 picks, and the slate is packed with a ton of great matchups. As we saw last weekend, Week 3 and on is where the preseason rust starts to wear off. The good teams start to separate themselves, especially the ones that cover.

So, without further ado, here are our two favorite bets for Sunday!

Cleveland Browns (+7) at Baltimore Ravens

It is time to buy-low on the Browns. The look-ahead line at the Westgate for this game before Sunday’s dud by Cleveland was 3½ points. We’re getting a ton of value on the Browns here due to a market overreaction from last weekend. The public thinks Cleveland has no shot to win this game, and that is exactly why this is the spot to back the Browns.

As bad as Cleveland played, they were in that game against the Los Angeles Rams until the very end thanks to their defense. What better way to bounce back from an embarrassing performance on national television than against a team in your division? With Jimmy Smith still out, look for Baker Mayfield and Odell Beckham to take some shots in this one.

A less talented Browns team lost to the Ravens by 3 and 2 points last season, and I see this game playing out the same way.

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills +7

I know it is the Bills, but they are being undervalued in this home spot. The public is hammering the Patriots, and understandably so, as they’ve been destroying their opponents. But this Bills defense is no joke, especially up front. Buffalo has given up the fewest passing yards in the NFL this season, and should be able to pressure Tom Brady all game long with their front four.

If you remember last year’s matchups between these two teams, both of those games came down to the fourth quarter before the Patriots were able to pull away. This year’s Bills team is better on both sides of the football, so I see this one coming down to the wire. Don’t forget how raucous the Buffalo crowd is going to be. Bills mafia is going to be in full effect come Sunday.

Survivor Pick:

If you are looking for a safe survivor pick this weekend, look no further than the Los Angeles Rams. The Rams play at home and face a Tampa Bay Bucs team that was just shredded up by Daniel Jones last weekend. If the Bucs struggled vs. the rookie Jones, what is going to happen against Jared Goff, especially on the road? The Rams QB averaged over a hundred yards more and twice as many passing touchdowns at home vs. the road last season.

The Bucs now travel cross country for this game, and their defense has given up 30-plus points to the San Francisco 49ers and New York Giants at home. Los Angeles should be able to win this game easily. Now, covering, that is another thing because I am sure the backdoor will be open. But luckily for you, you just need them to win in the survivor.

Fun parlay of the week:

New Orleans Saints +3, Carolina Panthers +4

We won on the Saints last week, and it is time to ride them again in this spot. When is the last time you remember New Orleans being a home dog for a Sunday night or Monday night game? Their crowd will be absolutely bonkers, especially after a day of drinking on Bourbon Street. Granted Drew Brees is out, but Teddy Bridgewater did a good job of managing the game. Coach Payton will find ways to use Alvin Kamara and Taysom Hill this Sunday. While the Cowboys are 3-0, they really have not played a team as well-coached or as explosive as the Saints.

We also won with the Panthers last weekend and they also seem to be in another good spot here again against the Houston Texans. Kyle Allen jump-started the offense and Christian McCaffrey put on a show. Look for CMC to pop off again against a weak Texans run defense that was gashed by Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray in Week 1. Carolina’s defense is good enough to keep them in this game, and the offense should be able to put up points.