NFL Week 4 is finally here, so it is time to have fun, and of course make some money! Welcome to Week 4 of our NFL Joes vs. Pros breakdown. If you are interested in who the “sharp” money is on, or if games have reverse line movement, this is the place to be. We also try to get you a Vegas oddsmaker’s point of view, so take it for what it is worth. This should not be the end all be all for your wagers, but just another tool to consider while you are putting your card together. Sports Insights is where we get our percentages from.
Before we jump into it, some general betting terms to know:
Joes: Who the general public is overwhelmingly betting on. Around 60% or higher is a good baseline we like to use for this piece.
Pros: Sharps, Wiseguys, Syndicates, big bettors, whatever you want to call them. Basically, who the big money is on in the game.
Reverse Line Movement (RLM): When the majority of bets are on one side, but the line moves in the opposite direction. Usually an indicator of “smart” money.
For this article in particular, we will focus on games that have both reverse line movement and Joes vs. Pros disparity. Only one game fits on this week’s slate:
Tampa Bay Bucs +9 at Los Angeles Rams
While 60% of the public is on the Rams, the “Pro” money has come in on Bucs (63%), driving this line down from -10 to -9. This move indicates big reverse line movement on Tampa Bay.
I also had a chance to speak with Alan Berg, Sr. Oddsmaker at the Caesars. It is always great to get the oddsmakers point of view when it comes to these games. Berg had the following to say about Sunday’s games:
Needs: Denver Broncos, Cleveland Browns, Arizona Cards, Detroit Lions & Washington Redskins
Sharps are on: Cleveland Browns +7, Miami Dolphins +16.5, Tennessee Titans, Minnesota Vikings & Jacksonville Jaguars
So, there you have it. Good luck with your wagers and hopefully this sports intel helps with your Sunday NFL card.