Welcome to Week 4 of our weekly weekend props post! A lot of bookmakers spend less time making player prop odds than they do on more traditional NFL lines (point-spread, total). Because of this reason, player props can offer some of the best betting value on the board in any given week. We’re here to do the research for you so that we can help you exploit these situations on a weekly basis. Don’t forget to shop around for the best lines.
Remember, it’s all about the matchups!
Here are our four favorite prop bets for the weekend:
Darren Waller Over 66 receiving yards
While the Raiders have gotten off to a rough start as a team, their tight end is quietly having himself a season. Waller has clicked with Derek Carr and become his safety net, and it shows in his numbers. The young TE has two games with over 30% of the Raiders targets and is averaging 8+ catches and 89 yards per game. Couple that with the fact that the Indianapolis Colts have been soft underneath against TEs and you have yourself a nice matchup.
Here are the Colts box scores vs. opposing starting tight ends.
Week 1: Hunter Henry – four receptions for 60 yards
Week 2: Delanie Walker – four receptions for 39 yards
Week 3: Austin Hooper – six receptions for 66 yards and two touchdowns
The Colts are also heavily favored (-9.5), so the Raiders should be in catchup mode most of the game. So there is a nice game script in play here for Waller as well.
Will Dissly Over 51 receiving yards
Going right back to the TE well here for just about the same reasons. Dissly has meshed well with Russell Wilson with back to back 5+ catch and 50+ yard games. Now faces an Arizona Cardinals defense that has allowed 23 catches for 350 yards and 5 touchdowns to opposing TEs in 2019. Oh yes, that is a go on Dissly in DFS and in the prop world!
Marlon Mack Over 71 rushing yards
Mack comes into this game as the Colts bellcow, averaging 20.3 rushes and 99.6 yards per game. The Raiders have been bad in a lot of areas this season, including stopping the run. Oakland’s defense ranks 28th in touches per game (29.7) faced to opposing backfields and 22nd in yards per carry allowed to backs (4.48 yards). As mentioned above, the Colts are a huge favorite going into this game. If they get out to an early lead, look for them to rely on Mack heavily in this game.
Austin Ekeler Over 64 rushing yards
This game has blowout written all over it, which bodes well for both of the Los Angeles Chargers’ running backs. Ekeler in particular should be able to feast vs. a lowly Miami Dolphins defense that has allowed 624 rushing yards through three games. Yes, Justin Jackson has dipped into Ekeler’s touches, but even with that, he still had 16 touches for 81 yards last weekend. With Melvin Gordon returning next week, look for Ekeler to ball out this weekend.