Newton’s third law of motion states, “what goes up must come down”. After going 6-0 in Week 12 and 13, we have stumbled a little bit with a 1-2 Week 14 and an 0-3 in Week 15. Hey, if gambling were that simple, we’d all be rich and traveling the world. Unfortunately, it is not, but overall, it has been a positive season for us, so let’s keep trusting the process with our picks for NFL week 16 games.
We’re now in the final two weeks of the season, with a ton of playoff implications on the line, so this should be a great slate of Saturday and Sunday games.
Vik’s Picks NFL Week 16
Here are our three favorite bets for this weekend:
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles +2
It is finally here…this is the game that decides the NFC East! A lot of times I make my picks based on the situation. This game here, is an example of that. The Eagles are in a good situational spot in this matchup.
The public seems to disagree, with over 80% of the public hammering the Cowboys. But, if you’ve been reading this column all season long, you know I’m a contrarian, and this is one of the reasons I like the Eagles.
Dak Prescott also comes into this game with an injured AC joint in his throwing shoulder. This is a very painful injury, and will definitely limit his downfield throws and accuracies, no matter what kind of pain killers they give him.
You are also getting value on the Eagles at home here, as this line move is an overreaction from last weekend’s games for both teams. This is called recency bias, and you are seeing exactly that in this line move.
From an X’s and O’s standpoint, there are two things that stick out to me. First, the Eagles should be able to move the ball on this Cowboys offense. Second, Philly has a very stout run defense, so they should be able to contain Ezekiel Elliott from running wild.
There is just too much value to pass up here, give me the Eagles.
Kansas City Chiefs at Chicago Bears +7
Call me crazy, but I like the Bears in this spot. While Chicago is out of the playoffs, they are going to play all their starters and their defense should still translate onto the field come Sunday.
And believe it or not, Mitchell Trubisky is 7-2 ATS in primetime games. That is mostly thanks to his defense, but worth noting.
The Bears’ defense should hold its own in this one as well. They’ve been stingy allowing points, and Khalil Mack and Co. have performed well in the bright lights. Chicago getting Akeem Hicks boosted their DL against the Chiefs, so you will see more of that on Sunday Night Football.
Lastly, the public is hammering the Chiefs at an 89% clip. The game opened Chiefs -4 in most spots, and has been hammered down to -6 in most spots. While the public is looking at an easy Chiefs win, there is some value on the Bears at home in this one. Under Matt Nagy, the Bears losses usually come down to the last possession. That includes this season, where the only loss that wasn’t was against the Saints.
New Orleans Saints at Tennessee Titans +2.5
In the final of our NFL picks for week 16 I like Tennessee, which is also a good situational bet this weekend. There are a ton of reasons to like the Titans in this spot. First, the Saints are getting hammered by the public (80% clip) and understandably so. NOLA put on a show against a good Colts team, and Drew Brees’ had a record-breaking performance on Monday Night Football. But this is all the more reason to like the Titans in this matchup.
The Saints are in a letdown spot and on a short week. They are also banged up on the defensive side of the football, so the Titans should be able to score points in this game. Tennessee’s run defense is also strong, and is ranked 5th in DVOA.
If you watched last weekend’s Titans game, you know that they were one fluke play away from winning that game. The pick at the goal line was a 14-point swing, which changed the entire trajectory of the game. The Titans have been playing solid football as of late, so you get some value on them in this one. Just a tip, but if you do like the Titans, I suggest waiting until closer to game-time to get your bet in. You should definitely be able to get +3 before kick-off.
Buffalo Bills +7, Los Angeles Rams +7
We’ve hit on a couple of these this season, so why not? If you are looking to sprinkle on a couple of dogs, I’d look at the Bills and Rams. These are always risky, but there is some value in the Rams. It is a division game, and they are in the playoff hunt. The Bills have also quietly played good football all season long, especially on the defensive side of the football. Buffalo has also played well against New England the last two seasons. In what Vegas deems to be a low scoring game, I’ll grab the points.
So, there you have it for our NFL picks and parlays for week 16. Good luck with your wagers and hopefully this Sports intel helps with your Sunday NFL card.