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Week 17 NFL Props: Mahomes? Sure. Mixon???

With each and every NFL team playing this Sunday, we have a ton of action-packed into one day.  Let’s up the excitement even more with a trio of top NFL player props for Week 17.

Best NFL Player Props Week 17

Joe Mixon OVER 86 yards vs Cleveland Browns (-115)
We talk a lot about how week to week usage can make or break a player prop in the NFL. Mixon has risen into elite usage status for a running back over the last month of play.  He has seen at least 23 touches in each of his previous four games and that kind of usage is something we can look to exploit in this game against the Browns.  Cleveland, for those living under a rock, has been a huge disappointment this season.

Perhaps their biggest failing has come in the rush defense, which has ranked 2nd worst over the last four weeks.  In those games, the Browns have given up a disturbingly bad 3.5 per carry BEFORE contact, easily the worst in the league since the calendar hit November. On the year, 39.4% of the total yards given up by Cleveland have been on the ground, which is quite a staggering number when you consider how many more yards passing plays usually generate.


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Make no mistake, the Bengals are having their fair share of struggles this year, but Mixon has been the consistent bright spot for them.  He comes into this game just 25-yeards short of crossing the century mark for the second season in a row, the first Bengal to do so since Cedric Benson (2010-11).  Mixon really turned up his effort after week 10, taking his game to the highest level over the last seven games.  He has totaled 151 touches for 655 yards and a trio of rushing touchdowns.

As mentioned above, his recent 20+ touches per week is a huge boon to us and he has totaled 332 yards in those three games.  It’s worth noting that during that stretch, just three weeks ago, he dusted the Browns for 146 rushing yards in week 14.  He tore Cleveland apart really, averaging 6.3 YPC and 13.3 yards per catch in a game which he set season highs in rushing and receiving yards.

While I won’t bet on him to go over 140 yards again, which would be +380 for those brave bettors, I love his chances at eclipsing this rather low number against such a bad defense.  He probably gets 100 yards in this game but I am fine with the odds we’re getting for him to surpass 86.

Patrick Mahomes OVER 2 TD Passes vs Chargers (-195)

This props bet for NFL week 17 is more based on matchup and skill than usage, but as we all know, Mahomes is a well-utilized QB week to week so getting his attempts will be of little issue.  Sure, the Chargers have allowed more than one TD pass in a game just once in the last 8 weeks, with one of those coming against Mahomes.


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But this game will be different and here’s why.  In their week 12 tilt against the Chargers in Los Angeles, the Chiefs were without the services of Pro-Bowl wide receiver Tyreek Hill.  In fact, these two superstars have only played six complete games with each other this year.  Thing is, in those six games, Mahomes has averaged over 2 touchdowns per game and seen this total go over four times. Another stat that shows the Week 12 game was an anomaly is that in his 2 games last season, Mahomes totaled six passing touchdowns against a pass rush that is largely unchanged. Another consideration for this pick is Mahomes’ health.

It is no secret that Mahomes has dealt with nagging injuries for just about the entire season, some more than just nagging to be frank. But this week marks the first in a long time which Mahomes does not even show up on the injury report.  No probably designation here folks, we will finally get to see Mahomes with two healthy legs under him.

I think this is also a big deal for Mahomes and should give him some added confidence to really let it hand out vs the Chargers. In fact, I believe this will be the start of a run by the Chiefs which could see them make some real noise come playoff time and remind the league just how good this young QB really is.

That’s it for our NFL props betting for Week 17, so come back some for more picks and parlays.


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Matt De Saro is a journalist and media personality specializing in sport, specifically sports betting. He has hosted podcasts and web shows since 2014 which aim to educate and inform sports bettors worldwide. Matt has created content, both written & media, for the likes of Fansided, Forbes, Sportsbook Review & YouWager. With a background in statistical analysis and a love of everything sports, he takes an outside the box approach to reporting on the sports betting industry.

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