Welcome to Week 3 of our weekly weekend props post! A lot of bookmakers spend less time making player prop odds than they do on more traditional NFL lines (point-spread, total). Because of this reason, player props can offer some of the best betting value on the board in any given week. We’re here to do the research for you so that we can help you exploit these situations on a weekly basis. Don’t forget to shop around for the best lines.
Remember, it’s all about the matchups!
Here are our four favorite prop bets for the weekend:
Saquon Barkley Over 111 rushing yards
Barkley has had 139 and 135 total yards through two games on just 15 and 21 touches. He’s also pumped out 227 rushing yards (113.5 per game). With Daniel Jones starting, look for that number to go up even more. We get some value in the number this week because the Tampa Bay Bucs blanketed Christian McCaffrey by holding him to 53 yards last week. Don’t let that stop you from betting the over this weekend on Bark yards.
Adam Thielen Over 73 receiving yards
The implied total for the Vikings in this game is set for 25.5 points and the Oakland Raiders have allowed a league-high 15 offensive plays of 20-plus yards through two weeks. This means Minnesota is expected to score and should be able to pass the ball for some big chunks. Thielen should be able to do work especially against Oakland because they have allowed opposing wide receivers to post 16 receptions for 250 yards through the first two games. More specifically, 14 catch-211 yards to the Denver Broncos WRs in Week 1 and 17 catch-228 yards to the Kansas City Chiefs WRs in Week 2. Thielen caught 5 balls for 75 yards last week against the Packers, which he should top this weekend.
Teddy Bridgewater Under 236 passing yards
I know Bridgewater knows the offense, but look for coach Payton to rely on Alvin Kamara more in this game. In Seattle the 12th man’s noise will come into play, so that is another reason the Saints offense will be more run-oriented as well. Taysom Hill will also have a larger role in this offense with Brees out and play under center more this game. That will take away from Bridgewater’s opportunities. Here is another key reason to like the under passing yards props. Last week Teddy B averaged just 5.5 yards per pass and just 2 of 30 of Teddy Bridgewater’s pass attempts have been on throws 15-yards or further downfield. This is the lowest rate in the league.
Jason Witten Over 4 receptions
The Cowboys implied total vs. the lowly Miami Dolphins is set to 34.25 points. The ‘boys are expected to score easily in this one, and Witten should be one of the biggest beneficiaries. The Dolphins are terrible against the TE position, as they’ve allowed eight receptions for 104 yards (second-most) to opposing tight ends. Also, Dallas will be without WR Michael Gallup, so those targets will need to be redistributed across the board, which also helps Witten in this spot. Not overthinking it here, the Dolphins defense is atrocious, look for the crafty veteran to find gaps in the D and rack up catches in this game.