NFL Week 3 is finally here, so it is time to have fun, and of course make some money! Welcome to Week 3 of our NFL Joes vs. Pros breakdown. If you are interested in who the “sharp” money is on, or if games have reverse line movement, this is the place to be. We also try to get you a Vegas oddsmaker’s point of view, so take it for what it is worth. This should not be the end all be all for your wagers, but just another tool to consider while you are putting your card together. Sports Insights is where we get our percentages from.
Before we jump into it, some general betting terms to know:
Joes: Who the general public is overwhelmingly betting on. Around 60% or higher is a good baseline we like to use for this piece.
Pros: Sharps, Wiseguys, Syndicates, big bettors, whatever you want to call them. Basically, who the big money is on in the game.
Reverse Line Movement (RLM): When the majority of bets are on one side, but the line moves in the opposite direction. Usually an indicator of “smart” money.
For this article in particular, we will focus on games that have both reverse line movement and Joes vs. Pros disparity. Only one game fits on this week’s slate:
Baltimore Ravens (+5.5) at Kansas City Chiefs
While 65% of the public is on the Chiefs, the “Pro” money has come in on Ravens (55%), driving this line down from -6 to -5.5. This move indicates reverse line movement on the Ravens.
Possible reasons why? These two teams played a thriller last year, where the Chiefs won by three points and the Ravens covering. The Ravens are also healthier and their ground game has an advantage against the Chiefs rush defense (bottom-five).
I also had a chance to speak with Alan Berg, Sr. Oddsmaker at the Caesars. It is always great to get the oddsmakers point of view when it comes to these games. Berg had the following to say about Sunday’s games:
Needs: Denver Broncos, Cincinnati Bengals, New York Jets, Miami Dolphins, New Orleans Saints, Pittsburgh Steelers, Cleveland Browns
Sharps are on: Detroit Lions, Denver Broncos, Ravens-Chiefs Under, New York Giants, Los Angeles Rams
So, there you have it. Good luck with your wagers and hopefully this sports intel helps with your Sunday NFL card.