Now that most of the big free agents have changed teams and the NFL Draft is over, we have a pretty good idea of what rosters are going to look like. After taking into account rosters, SOS, point differential, NFL injuries, new QBs and coaches, I have a better feel for the over under bets that I like and don’t like for the upcoming season, and today I’m going to have a look at the NFC South.

Of course now that the draft is over, oddsmakers have also done the same, and adjusted some of their season totals. Here are the most updated totals, but make sure you shop around:

2020 NFL Win Totals

Baltimore Ravens: 11.5

Kansas City Chiefs: 11.5

New Orleans Saints: 10.5

San Francisco 49ers: 10.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 10

Dallas Cowboys: 9.5

Philadelphia Eagles: 9.5

Seattle Seahawks: 9.5

Buffalo Bills: 9

Green Bay Packers: 9

Indianapolis Colts: 9

New England Patriots: 9

Pittsburgh Steelers: 9

Chicago Bears: 8.5

Cleveland Browns: 8.5

Los Angeles Rams: 8.5

Minnesota Vikings: 8.5

Tennessee Titans: 8.5

Houston Texans: 8

Atlanta Falcons: 7.5

Denver Broncos: 7.5

Las Vegas Raiders: 7.5

Los Angeles Chargers: 7.5

Arizona Cardinals: 7

Detroit Lions: 6.5

New York Giants: 6.5

New York Jets: 6.5

Miami Dolphins: 6

Carolina Panthers: 5.5

Cincinnati Bengals: 5.5

Jacksonville Jaguars: 5

Washington Redskins: 5

Buckle up, because I am going to start giving you my division by division breakdown on how I see these totals playing out this season. Let’s take a look at the NFL over under betting for NFC South.

NFC South Over Under 2020

Tampa Bay Bucs over under 10 (no play)

While I love what the Bucs did in the offseason by getting Brady and Gronk, and their first round draft pick is a stud, I don’t see an edge in betting on them. The number is just right to me, so it is not worth it.

Brady is also “older” and Gronk hasn’t played football in a year. Basically, we are one injury away from losing this bet completely.

If everyone does stay healthy, I do have the Bucs as a playoff contender next season, but the number is a little too sharp for my liking, so I will pass.

New Orleans Saints over 9.5

As long as the Saints have coach Payton and Drew Brees, they will always be in the mix to win the division and double-digit victories.

The Saints did not have a lot of picks, but I love the addition of Ruiz to sure up their offensive line. I’m also a big fan of the Emmanuel Sanders signing, as he should do a ton of damage next to Michael Thomas next season.

Brees is coming back for one last rodeo and I think they did just enough in the offseason to go all-in for one more big season. I’ll take them to win 10 games.

Atlanta Falcons over 7.5

The Falcons have studs on the offensive side of the football in Ridley, Julio Jones, Todd Gurley (via free agency) and Matt Ryan. They knew they needed to get better on the defensive side of the football if they wanted to contend, and you could see it in their draft approach. Four out of their six picks were made on that side of the football, and understandably so.

They used the same approach in free agency, signing big names on defense. Most notably, Dante Fowler Jr., who should provide them with the pass rush that they so desperately needed.

Atlanta went 7-9 last season and I like what they did via FA and the draft. With Brees and Brady being on the older side, both of those teams are one shot away from dropping big in the NFL standings.

Look for the Falcons to be in the mix and win at least 8 games.

Carolina Panthers under 5.5

The Panthers lost the heart and soul of their team in Luke Kuechly to retirement this offseason. That is a devastating blow for Carolina on both sides of the ball because of his leadership.

They did their defense in the draft by using every single pick on the defensive side of the football. But, being in the division they are in, I just don’t think they have enough on offense to keep up with Atlanta, TB and Nola.

Relying on a big rookie class to make an immediate impact is going to be tough, especially in an offseason affected by the coronavirus. The development of the younger guys is going to be lagging behind without an in-person off season. That should cause this team to come out of the gates slow, as they were already lacking in talent compared to their division foes.

I expect the Panthers to be one of the worst teams in football this upcoming season, so I’ll take the under 5.5