NCAA Football Week 7: Go Over-Board

Week 7 of the NCAA football betting season provides a lot of value wagering on totals.   With half the season in the books, let’s keep up our winning ways with the best over/under bets this weekend.

Iowa State Cyclones vs West Virginia Mountaineers | O/U 52.5
Milan Puskar Stadium | Morgantown West Virginia | 4:00 PM ET

Our first play this weekend comes in the form of a Big 12 battle between Iowa State and West Virginia.  At the time of writing, the total for this game is set at 52.5 with both teams hitting more overs than they miss.  The over is 7-0 in the Mountaineers last seven games against Big 12 opponents and also 7-1 their last eight when playing against teams with a winning record.

If last week’s game against Texas is any indication, the West Virginia offense can put up big numbers against a high-quality defense. Both quarterbacks, Brock Purdy and Austin Kendall, are strong play-callers with the arms to back it up.  In fact, Purdy is a dual-threat QB who is also the Cyclones’ primary ball carrier.  He ranks fifth in the nation in total yards per game and ran for 102 yards and a pair to touchdowns.  Very impressive from a quarterback with such a traditional skill set to compliment his legs.  Austin Kendall should get his licks in as well as the Cyclones rank 75th in the country against the pass.  Expect this to be a shootout and a relatively easy over hit.
Best Bet: Iowa State & West Virginia OVER 52.5 (-115)

Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Tennessee Volunteers | O/U 52.5
Neyland Stadium | Knoxville Tennessee | 12:00 PM ET
The total for this showdown opened at 52 and has already been bet up to 53 at most books with a few still hanging at 52.5.  This is the line we will be looking at since we are going for another over on Saturday.  Get this one in before the line grows as I expect a closing line closer to 54 as we near kickoff.  The Volunteers are looking good after QB Brian Maurer replaced Jarrett Guarantano last week and passed for 259 yards and a pair of touchdowns against powerhouse Georgia.  Bad news for the team, but good news for over bettors, is Tennesee is averaging 38.5 points per game allowed by opposing SEC teams and have seen the over hit in four of their last five home games.

The Bulldogs are expected to return QB Tommy Stevens who missed last week’s game with a foot injury, this is good news.  News is he is healthy and ready to go at 100%.  Mississippi State has been an over team of late, hitting four of their last five while Tennessee is doing their part with a 3-2 over record over the same timeframe.  Additionally, the last five meetings between these two have gone over the total in four of those games.  This one I expect to be a bit of a nail biter but am still confident in these offenses putting in work and getting os to the magic number of 53 points.
Best Bet: Mississippi & Tennessee OVER 52.5 (-107)

Ole Miss Rebels vs Missouri Tigers | O/U 56.5
Faurot Field, at Memorial Stadium | Columbia, Missouri | 7 PM ET
Heading into this game the under has hit in four of the last five games for the Tigers, scoring almost 40ppg along the way and looking like an explosive offensive threat to any team.  They will be going head to head against Ole Miss, a team that was absolutely dismantled by Alabama.  Sure those two teams are on different levels, but I still believe that Ole Miss is a pretty garbage defense and will continue to wear down mentally and physically as the season progresses.

ssWith Kelly Bryant mostly healthy, the Rebels will have their hands full and I don’t see their defense being able to handle the Tigers passing attack.  When you combine a young defense who is getting torched weekly, with a five star QB, points are going to be scored. Missouri will outplay the Rebels.  That being said, I am banking on Ole Miss to go full fetal position and fail to put up enough points to push the total over the 56.5 mark.  Neither team has been consistent with cashing overs and I expect that to continue on Saturday night.
Best Bet: Ole Miss Rebels & Missouri Tigers OVER 56.5 (-105)