Happy Monday! Back for another week of picks. I’m excited because we’re also one day closer to March Madness. This week is a ton of fun when it comes to gambling because of the Conference tournies. Anyways, back to business.
I’m going to write a daily piece that highlights my favorite daily picks on the sports slate.
On Friday I finished the day 1-2.
Anyways, while everyday is a new opportunity and I don’t want to get sucked into the past, I think it’s worth reviewing things each day. This will help us get better as we move forward. So, here goes:
– Boise State +9.5 (loss) – BSU led pretty much the entire first half and went into halftime tied. Their magic ran out in the second half after allowing a barrage of 3s, losing by 13.
– Arizona Coyotes ml (loss) – Saw some good value in the NHL, so took the Coyotes. They lost 3-2, but had so many opportunities. Onto the next one.
– Pacers – 3 (won) – On a day like Friday, it was nice having a game play out like you broke it down. The Bulls are bad against good teams, and this one played out perfectly with Indiana blowing out the Bulls.
Now, onto today’s card. We have a ton of college basketball picks and a three-game NBA slate.
We did the research for you so, so here are our three favorite bets for today:
NCAA Basketball Picks
UIC +6 vs. Wright State (neutral)
We hit on UIC last week, so I am going back to the well again tonight. These two teams played twice during the regular season, splitting the series 1-1.
The public is pretty split on this matchup right now, as they are literally at a 50% clip on both squads.
Matchups wise, UIC has played solid defense all season long, and are ranked in the top-40 in Effective FG%, FT%, 3PT% and Block %. This game will come down to if UIC can rebound the ball better than the last time these two teams matched up. UIC does have the highest rebounding rate in the conference, but were defeated on the glass last time these two teams met up. If they can control the glass, they have a chance to win this game straight-up.
Another big reason why I like to fade Wright State in this spot is their poor free-throw shooting. Kind of reminds me of Michigan from a couple of years ago. Where they would be winning every game but at the end of games, when fouled, Michigan would miss a ton of free-throws and get back-doored. WSU is ranked 277 in FT%, shooting just 67.7%. As long as this game is close, this will come into play at the end.
I see this one coming down to the last few minutes, with UIC having a chance to win straight up, so I will take the points.
Hawks Host Hornets
Hornets at Hawks under 224
The first time these two teams met, the Hawks shot the ball extremely well and scored a 119 points. So, why do I like the under?
That was a different Hawks team. Call it a wall, but this Atlanta team has been struggling recently. The engine that makes them go is Trae Young, and even his shooting numbers have struggled as of late. His numbers dipped to a season low 42.3 FG% in February and so far March has been much worse. Granted it is a small sample set, but he’s shooting just 27.3% in the month of March. It is going to get better, but his shooting % has been trending down.
The Hawks are also placing at a slower pace than they were earlier this season. And now they played the Hornets, who play super slow. In fact, they are the slowest team in the whole league.
And, while the public is on the over tonight, the total has already dropped a point from its opening line of 225. I wouldn’t be surprised to see it dip lower by tip-off tonight. I lean the Hornets as well, but like the under a little bit more in this matchup.
Will No Giannis Hurt Bucks?
Milwaukee Bucks +6 at Denver Nuggets
This is one you have to kind of hold your breath, submit, and not tune in until it is over. Why? The Bucks have been slumping bad, are on a back-to-back in Denver (altitude) and are missing Giannis.
In my opinion, that is all already caked into the line. We are seeing recency bias and oddsmakers have already taken into account the back-to-back in Denver. I like it because we are getting some value on one of the best regular season squads. The Bucks have also played well with no Giannis in the team the past two seasons and are used to it in a way. Nothing can replace the MVP, but they have been there before, which helps.
Denver also has not been playing great basketball. They just lost to the crappy Cavs and are just 5-5 over their past ten games. They also have a negative point differential over that timespan.
Shop around on this line. I see some 6’s and 5.5’s out there. 6 is better than 5.5, but I would still make this bet at 5.5. The public is on the Nuggets big, so it makes me like my bet even more.
I’m not saying the Bucks will win, but we are getting an inflated line here, so I will roll with Milwaukee in this spot.
Let’s get this!
Well, that is all folks. Good luck on today’s wagers!