After a red-hot 3-0 last weekend, we’re back with our Thanksgiving day picks! This week’s picks will be split into two posts, one for the three Thanksgiving games and one for the rest of the weekend. No time to research before your big Thanksgiving feast tomorrow, no problem, we have you covered.
Vik’s Picks Thanksgiving Day Edition
So, without further ado, here are our three favorite picks for Thanksgiving Day!
Chicago Bears -4 at Detroit Lions
The Bears have had a disappointing season thus far, but their defense is still ranked in the top-5 in multiple categories. Here are the ones that interest me in this matchup. The D is allowing the fourth fewest points in the NFL. The defense is also allowing just 1.48 points per drive (4th in NFL) behind only the Patriots, Niners, and Bills. Lastly, Chicago is allowing just 6.6 yards per pass attempt (4th) and their pressure rate is i27.3% (6th).
All of this spells bad news for either Lions backup Quarterback, Jeff Driskel or David Blough. It looks like Bough might be the one giving it a go due to Driskell’s hamstring injury, but we will find out more news later today.
On the offensive side of the ball, the Bears should be able to move the ball. The Lions are 29th in the league in passing points allowed per game, don’t pressure the QB much, and have gotten torched by opposing RBs. This plays directly into the profile of teams that the Bears do well against on offense. “Well” is relative when it comes to the Bears offense, but they only need to be well enough to let the defense win the game, which should be the case tomorrow.
The Bears have also won and covered three games in a row vs. the Lions. All in all, this is just a good situational spot to take the Bears which is why they are our pick for Thanksgiving weekend, even with their offense being as bad as it has been all season long. I would take the Bears up to -6, which it should get near if Blough does indeed start.
Buffalo Bills at Dallas Cowboys -7
Ezekiel Elliott to rush for over 75 yards (Pointsbet and multiple books)
I can see the game itself going either way, so I’ve zeroed in on a NFL props bet that I like. Look for Zeke to run wild in this one for a myriad of reasons.
Elliott has rushed for 75 or more yards in four of his last six games. The Bills are also tied for 20th in the NFL in yards allowed per rush (4.4).
The game script also helps Zeke in this matchup. They are a home favorite against a team that is stout vs. the pass but gives up big chunks on the ground. With them being such a big favorite, if they are up, they will feed Elliott, especially in the second half.
Lastly, the Bills rank 30th in 2nd level yards and 30th in open field yards. The Cowboys are good at getting Elliott to that second level where he can do his damage.
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons under 49
While the majority of bets are coming in on the Saints in this matchup, I am focusing on the total instead for my Thanksgiving Day pick. Why, you ask? I see the Saints coming into this one in full revenge mode, after the Falcons smacked them around a couple of weeks ago.
I trust this Saints defense to step up in this spot, since usually the better teams are always more prepared during these short weeks. They are too well-coached not too. On the offensive side of the football, I expect the Saints to get their ground game going, and pound the Falcons into submission.
On the other side of the ball, the Falcons have their own issues to worry about as well. Austin Hooper is out, Julio Jones is questionable and their offensive line is a mess.
I also love that this is the second time these two teams are playing in a short time span. That type of increased familiarity usually favors lower scoring games and the sharps agree. While over 75% of the public bettors are already hitting the over, the total has dropped from 50 to 49 in most places.
This game is the third and final game of the day, so you know Vegas will need either the Falcons or the under since everyone will be on the Saints and the over.
So, there you have it for our Thanksgiving Day picks. Have a wonderful time with your family and friends, and hopefully this sports intel helps with your NFL card.