After a 3-0 sweep last weekend, we’re back with our NFL Week 13 picks. This slate is packed with a ton of great matchups, so this should be a fun Sunday.
Vik’s Picks NFL Week 13
Here are our three favorite bets for Sunday!
New York Jets at Cincinnati Bengals +3
The Bengals come into this game winless at 0-11, but they did cover for us last weekend. I’m going back to the well once more this weekend, you’ll see why.
While the Bengals are in “tank mode”, it does look like they don’t want to go 0-16, thus bringing back Andy Dalton to start this game. So you know they’ll still be motivated as a team in this one.
The Jets come into this game riding high, but are they over valued? I think so, but the public doesn’t. The Jets are being backed by the public at an 80% clip.
As Chad Millman has pointed out in some of his articles, a good barometer to compare teams is to use the Pythagorean differential. In this particular case, the Bengals have a +2.2 edge in Pythagorean differential with the Jets. So, yes, the Jets line is definitely over inflated.
New York is also more banged up than Cincinnati, missing their best defensive player in CJ Mosley and an offensive lineman.
Look for Dalton to have a good bounce back game, and for the Bengals to hang around. All in all, this is just a good situational spot to take the Bengals, so I’ll take the points in what I envision to be a back and forth game that comes down to the last drive.
San Francisco 49ers +6 at Baltimore Ravens
Call me crazy, but I like the Niners in this spot so they make our picks for NFL week 13. I took SF against the Packers last weekend, and I see a possible similar outcome in this matchup.
While the Ravens are flying high, this is a Niners D that can get pressure on the QB. No one can stop Lamar Jackson right now, but I do see San Francisco at least slowing him down.
Baltimore has a suspect run defense, which is a bad matchup for them against a Niners team that can pound you on the ground. The Ravens currently rank 24th in run defense DVOA, so look for Kyle Shanahan to come up with creative ways to run the football.
The Ravens are also weak at defending the TE, so look for George Kittle to have another big day. Meanwhile. The Niners defend the TE position well, which takes away one of Lamar’s favorite weapons in Mark Andrews.
The Niners also have the profile of a team that can “theoritically” beat the Ravens. The ability to run the football, play keep away from Lamar, and pressure him. San Francisco is a “live dog”, so I love the points. When it comes to the spread, shop around. There are some 6’s around currently. I would take 5.5 as well.
New England Patriots at Houston Texans +3
If you read my weekly column, you know I’m always scared to bet against the Patriots. They are the breaker of all systems, as Hoody doesn’t give two craps about our wagers. But, as we saw last week, this year’s team, while amazing on the defensive side of the football, does have some flaws on offense. The Patriots are also banged up and some of their players are currently overcoming the “flu”. In fact, Adam Schefter tweeted that 17, yes 17, of their players are questionable for this game. Hey, anything helps against New England.
The public is naturally on the Patriots at a 75% clip, but some sharp money has come in on Houston, driving this line down to Pats -3 in most places. This indicates reverse line movement on the Texans, as the NFL spreads originally started at Patriots -4.5. With this being the second-to-last NFL game to kickoff on the Sunday slate, you can be sure that Vegas will need the Texans.
Texans QB Deshaun Watson always plays well as an underdog. Even though the Patriots pass defense is the best in the game, Nuk Hopkins is too good to go out without a bang. Ultimately, I see this game coming down to the last drive. Sprinkle in some Watson to Hopkins magic, and the Texans have a shot to win this one outright.
NFL Survivor Pick Week 13:
If you are still alive in your survivor pool and haven’t used the Philadelphia Eagles or Carolina Panthers yet, this is definitely the week to pull the trigger on one of those two teams. If debating between the two, I would go Panthers first since they are at home, and then Philly.
New York Giants +7, Pittsburgh Steelers +3
We’ve hit on a couple of these this season, so why not? If you are looking to sprinkle on a couple of dogs, I’d look at the Giants and Steelers. I see Pittsburgh as a “live dog” and the Packers are one of the biggest public bets online this weekend.
So, there you have it for our picks for Week 13 of the NFL. Good luck with your wagers and hopefully this sports intel helps with your Sunday NFL card.