I’m going to write a daily piece that highlights my favorite daily picks on the sports slate.
Yesterday I finished 2-1. While every day is a new opportunity and I don’t want to get sucked into the past, I think it’s worth reviewing things each day. This will help us get better as we move forward. So, here goes:
* NC State +7 (won) – The Wolf Pack won straight up!
* Duke-NC State over 151 (won) – Pace was up and down and played out as I had penned.
* Blackhawks moneyline (lost) – Hawks got rolled, simple as that.
Now, onto today’s card. The NBA is back and CBB is in full force. Let’s do this!
Don’t worry about researching the card, because we’ve done the work for you.
Oregon at Arizona State +2
Oregon is a huge public favorite tonight, and understandably so. We have the No. 14 ranked team playing an unranked ASU squad. Which means easy winner, right? That is what the public thinks, with them betting the Ducks at a 65% clip tonight. But, let’s dig a little deeper.
Oregon, as good as they are, have been an inconsistent 4-4 away from home. Like most college squads, their away vs. home splits are very different. Same thing goes for ASU, as they are really good at home, boasting a 10-2 home record there.
The Sun Devils have won five games in a row and sit just a game behind Oregon to move atop the Pac-12 race. You know they will put their best foot forward tonight. They also have a tough defense (32nd ranked), which gets better at home.
Lastly, the crowd will be rocking, as it is an ESPN game. These conference battles always play out a lot closer than it looks on paper. I see ASU winning this game straight up.
Oregon State at Arizona over 138.5
When it comes to the total, it has actually gone down from a starting number of 142. The public and even some sharp money came in on the under. But, I’m a contrarian, so I will take the over in this spot.
Arizona shoots better at home, especially the three-ball. The Wildcats backcourt shoots a whole 8% better from 3-point land when they play at home. They are also the 17th best offense in the country.
Oregon State has an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency rating of 110.0, which is ranked 42th via Ken Pom. Arizona plays at an even faster pace, coming in ranked 16th, with a rating of 113.2. The pace of this game will be up and down, which is why I am loving the over.
I see this game being a 5-point type of game throughout, so free throws should help us get over this number late.
Charlotte at Chicago over 210
The NBA is back, so we had to find a play!
Since WCJ and Dunn went down for the Bulls, their defense has gotten substantially worse. Understandably so, as WCJ is their anchor and Dunn is their best back court defender.
WCJ has started to practice and is going to give it a shot tonight, but probably under limited minutes. Dunn is still out tonight, which gives the Bulls a huge disadvantage in this game defending Devonte Graham. Look for Graham to have a huge game.
The Bulls are also decimated due to other injuries. Their depth is terrible, so this will hurt them on the defensive end, especially in the second half of the game.
There is also a trend that when two bad teams play against each other after the All-Star break, totals tend to go over. Effort is the key here, and the lack of hustle should show between these two teams.
Well, that is all folks. Good luck on today’s wagers!