We’re back with our NFL Week 10 picks, and the slate is packed with a ton of great matchups. The good teams have separated themselves, but when it comes to gambling, we only care about who is good against the spread!
Viks’s Picks NFL Week 10
So, without further ado, let’s breakdown our three favorite NFL bets for Sunday!
Carolina Panthers +6 at Green Bay Packers
The Packers were pummeled by the Los Angeles Chargers last weekend, but that has not stopped the public from backing them this weekend at a 64% clip. Most of them are probably expecting Aaron Rodgers to bounce back at home in this spot. But, should they be worried?
Matchup wise, the Panthers have a couple of big edges. First, Carolina should be able to put up points via their ground game against a putrid Packers run defense. Over the season, the Packers have allowed 4.7 yards per carry (25th in the NFL) and 158.3 yards from scrimmage per game to opposing backfields (26th). They also rank 26th in Football Outsiders’ rush defense DVOA. Heck, if a sleepy Chargers backfield ran all over them for 157 yards, what do you think Christian McCaffrey is going to do? Run CMC is having an MVP type season, and the Packers won’t be able to slow him down this weekend.
The other big advantage the Panthers have is on the defensive side of the ball. While Aaron Rodgers is putting together an excellent season, the Panthers strength is defending the pass. Overall, they rank third in pass defense DVOA.
Both of these teams relying on the run in this one, which should keep the game close throughout. I see the Panthers as a live dog (have a chance to win straight up) in this matchup, so I will gladly take the points. In regards to the points, make sure you shop around. Some books have moved this line down to 5.5 and even 5, but there are a few 6’s out there. I would take it all the way down to 4, in the first of my picks for week 10 of the NFL.
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers -6
Russell Wilson is playing at an MVP level, but even that won’t be enough to help the Hawks in this game. The Niners are the league’s sole undefeated team left, and there is a reason for that. Not only are they well-coached by Kyle Shanahan and have balance on offense, but they have the NFL’s best pass defense (1st DVOA). The Niners also rank first in pressure rate on defense. Not a good combination for Seattle.
The Hawks are also a “trendy dog” coming into this matchup, getting over 60% of the bets. I like to generally fade teams in these types of situations. This is the first time the Niners are favored over the Seahawks since Week 14, 2014. Why is this important? They’ve been waiting for this game to send a message to the Hawks that the division is now theirs. Over the past couple of years, the Niners have always played the Hawks tough, but now they are finally ready to take the next step. What better time to do it than on Monday Night Football when the entire nation is watching?
Buffalo Bills-Cleveland Browns under 42
We rode the Bills under last weekend, so we are going back to the well again this Sunday. The Browns offense has looked abysmal, led by their quarterback play by Baker Mayfield. Granted, they are playing at home, but I don’t see that getting any better this weekend against a Bills defense that is ranked fifth in passing DVOA.
Like we talked about last weekend, Buffalo’s coach, Sean McDermott, knows he has a young, turnover prone QB, so he will do what he always does. Coach will rely on the run game and his great defense to keep them around in this game.
While the public likes the over in this one, the Bills, in general, are a good weekly under play. The under is now 13-6 in Allen’s career starts. Let’s keep riding that this weekend.
NFL Week 10 Survivor Pick:
If you are still alive in your survivor pool and haven’t used the New Orleans Saints or Indianapolis Colts, what are you waiting for? Otherwise, the Niners are a good pick as well (look above).
Fun underdog parlay of the week:
Bengals +10 and the Detroit Lions +3
Risky, but what did you expect…this is an underdog parlay! Pairing those two teams up presents some value. The Baltimore Ravens are in a letdown spot and they have a huge came coming up next week against the Houston Texans. And, have the Chicago Bears show you anything offensively to make you think they can keep up with the Lions and Matthew Stafford?
So, there you have it for my week 10 picks in the NFL! Here is to a green weekend, and good luck with your wagers.