Football is back, baby! With the NFL back, every week I will break down the games and select a couple of wagers that stick out to me.
Week 6 played out perfectly, with me hitting on my column and video picks and I went 3-0 to start off Week 7 on Thursday Night Football. For transparency, I’ve gone 20-11-1 ATS in the NFL through Week 7 (TNF) over at sportsintel.com and will keep track in this post weekly. The biggest thing is to trust the process, as it is a long season. There are going to be some ups and downs, but that is gambling for you.
I predict we are going to start seeing a lot more Joes vs. Pros type of games from this weekend on. The public is going to absolutely hammer good teams, where wiseguy will just be looking for value on numbers and some good situational spots. After diving into the numbers, I see some good value on a couple of teams this weekend. So, without any more wait, let’s get to it.
Here are my favorite picks for the weekend:
Carolina Panthers +7.5 at New Orleans Saints
I took the Bears last week against the Panthers because I felt it was a good spot for them. But, if you read this column, you know I’ve been on the Panthers wagon all season long and am going to jump back on in this situation. I love what their coach Matt Rhule is doing in his first season, especially without CMC. They are competitive in every game and I see this one coming down to the fourth quarter, so I love getting over a TD here.
Teddy Bridgewater as a dog has been great and Carolina’s defensive strength is defending the pass. With Emmanuel Sanders and Michael Thomas out for the Saints, I see them playing up and limiting Drew Brees in this one. The matchup that will dictate the game will be the Saints run offense vs. Panthers run defense. If Carolina can just slow the Saints ground and pound down, they will have a chance to win this game straight up.
This line is down to 7 in some spots, and I still like it there. As always, make sure you shop around for the best lines.
San Francisco 49ers at New England Patriots -2
This is a good spot for the Patriots, as we can take advantage of some recency bias in this spot. The public is high on SF after their last big win, while everyone is down on NE after losing to the Broncos.
The Niners will be missing several key figures, especially in the secondary with both of their starting safeties out. On the flip side, the Pats get back some players from injury and they finally had a normal week of practice after last week being derailed by their COVID-19 scare.
The matchup I’m looking at is then Pats run offense vs. the Niners run defense. Whoever can win that battle, will win the game. I like New England in that slugfest, which is why I am taking them to cover in this spot.
I also think there is a small chance that the Niners are potentially looking ahead to their big division game next week, against the Seattle Seahawks. I would take this as high as Pats -3.
Packers-Texans over 56 & Washington Football Team +1
I like the Texans a little bit as a side, but their defense is too bad for me to get behind them fully. Because of that reason, I like the over in this spot, as I see points galore coming. GB is ranked 30th in defensive DVOA, while Houston comes in at 27. Both QBs should be able to move the ball in this matchup.
Call me crazy, but I love the WFT in this spot. I see Chase Young and their defensive line causing problems for Andy Dalton all day. This is the biggest mismatch in the game. The public still believes in the Cowboys, but after what I saw on MNF, I have to go the other way.
If you are in any survivor pools, first of all, good luck. Those things are impossible because there is always a day where every upset in the book happens. But, we can research and try our best to find the mismatch that looks good for the week.
Last week we hit with the Dolphins. I think I will go back to the well this weekend by fading the Jets. Yes, it is a risky pick because I see everyone being on Buffalo this week, but sometimes you just live to fight another day. This is a tough slate and I like the Bills coming off back-to-back losses. They should be angry and this should be a get right game for them. If they can’t beat the lowly Jets, then maybe the Bills were not who we thought they were.
So, there you have it for Week 7. Good luck with your wagers and hopefully this sports intel helps with your Sunday NFL card.