Welcome to our new column where we review the previous NFL week and look at the odds and some games for the upcoming weekend.
So, after four weeks of football, here is the skinny: Favorites are 31-32 ATS while Overs are 36-26-1.
When it comes to bad beats, you have to feel for Jets backers, myself being one of them. For those of us that got in early last week and grabbed the Jets +3, the bet was looking good right up until the end. Of course the Jets had to give up a 43-yard touchdown run to Melvin Gordon when the game was all but over. Welcome to bad beat city, something Jets backers are all too familiar with.
The other game I’d throw in there is if you had the Chargers +6.5. The Bolts were pretty much up the entire game and then of course Tom Brady bounced back with a huge second half, outsourcing the Chargers 24-7. The late Bucs FG made some LAC fans hurt badly. Hopefully you at least pushed if you had the dog in this one.
And, this isn’t a bad beat, but if you bet on the Lions like I did, you have to be fuming. Detroit was up 14 out the game and didn’t even cover the 4.5. No clue how Matt Patricia still has a job.
A couple of quick things that stuck out to me otherwise:
- This seems to be a weekly occurrence, but BACKDOOR BURROW does it again. Not really a backdoor technically, but the kid played well and got his first NFL win.
- The Bears are who we thought they were?! They finally faced a big boy defense and got rolled. The Colts were in Chicago’s back field all game long. Now the Bears face a Tampa Bay team who is just as stiff against the run on a short week.
- MVP Watch still has Russell Wilson in first, but look out for Aaron Rodgers. Right now I have RW, Rodgers, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Donald as my top five. We will keep an eye on it weekly.
- Did the Eagles just save their season? The NFC East is so bad that their win against the Niners could be the game they look back on where things got turned around.
- Dallas is in trouble. Their defense is getting torched and there and I don’t see it getting any better. Injuries are plaguing them on that end and so is coaching. I guess it’ll be up to Dak and that offense to see if they can just outscore teams.
- The Buffalo Bills are for real. Big win for them in Las Vegas. A game that I thought setup perfectly for them to lose. This isn’t your old Bills. It’s nice to see someone else contending for that division this year.
Now, a look at Week 4. First, here are the odds via the SuperBook:
TB -5.5 at Chi
Atl -3.5 vs Car
KC -12 vs LV
NE vs Den (NL)
LAR -10 at Wsh
Hou -6.5 vs Jax
Ten vs Buf (NL)
Ari at NYJ (NL)
Pit -8.5 vs Phi
Bal -12 vs Cin
SF -9.5 vs Mia
Dal -8.5 vs NYG
Ind Pick at Cle
Sea -7.5 vs Min
NO -8 vs LAC
A couple of games stick out right away.
- I’m looking at the Las Vegas Raiders this week going up against the Chiefs. Maybe they catch KC looking ahead to their big game against the Bills. Jon Gruden is 5-4 ATS vs. Andy Reid.
- I’m still wondering how the Falcons are favored this weekend. Need to dig more into the game, but early lean, I like the Panthers. Atlanta just looks checked out and who knows when Julio Jones is going to get right.
Make sure you guys check back later this week for my final picks. Thanks for reading this week’s column, and let’s win some money in Week 5.