Football is back, baby! Week 3 didn’t play out like I expected, especially with the Giants and Saints, but we did land some winners via my video picks. A lot of games came down to the wire, which made for exciting football and insane sweats as a gambler. For transparency, I’ve gone 7-8-1 ATS in the NFL through Week 3 over at sportsintel.com and will keep track here weekly.
When it comes to Week 4, this is a big week for all the teams. A lot of coaches break their seasons up into quarter chunks, and I like to do the same thing when it comes to gambling. After four games, we will have a pretty decent sample set of what teams are going to be like over the next four games. After diving into the numbers, I see some good value on a couple of teams this weekend. So, without any more wait, let’s get to it.
Here are my favorite picks for the weekend:
Seattle Seahawks at Miami Dolphins +7
I know everyone is on the Seahawks in this spot (80% of the public), and understandably so. Russell Wilson is putting on a show and leads the MVP race after back-to-back 5 touchdown performances. But, this is the perfect let down spot for this Hawks team. Seattle’s defense is suspect at best, as they have given up over 1,200 yards via the air over the first three weeks. The Hawks are dealing with injuries on that side of the football and now their best playmaker in the secondary in Jamal Adams just got ruled out for the game too.
On the offensive side of the football, their RB Chris Carson is banged up. That will definitely affect their running game this weekend.
The Dolphins have had some extra prep time for this game since they played last Thursday Night. And, in that game, Ryan Fitzmagic put on a show. I see him having another huge game through the air in this one from the jump.
I also checked the weather and saw it is going to be hot and muggy in this one. Teams tend to run out of gas in the second half in September when they are in Miami. Just another factor the ‘Fins have going their way in this one.
Make sure you shop around for the best line. I grabbed the game at +7 earlier this week, but would definitely play it at +6.
Bills at Raiders +3.5
This is a great spot for the Raiders. It reminds me a lot of the game they played against the Saints a couple of weeks ago. The Bills are 3-0, but it’s not been all roses. Josh Allen has been a beast, but they have two wins against week squads and blew a huge lead to the Rams.
The biggest matchup I’m looking to target in this one is the Raiders running game vs. the Bills rush defense, as Buffalo ranks just 26th in rush defense DVOA. The Raiders have one of the NFL’s best offensive lines and a RB that is the real deal in Josh Jacobs. John Gruden aka Chucky will have a good offensive game plan for this matchup. I see the Raiders as a live dog, so I will grab the +3.5 and sprinkle a little on the moneyline.
Make sure you shop around for the best line. I caught it at 3.5, but I would play this at 3 as well.
Browns +4.5 & Ravens -12
I know this is a little bit of a public side, but I like the Ravens here after they got embarrassed on Monday night. I have a feeling Lamar Jackson won’t stop until he gets 30+ in this one. With the Redskins missing Chase Young, no one will be able to stop him from doing so.
While everyone is on the Cowboys (80% of public), I like the Browns here. Dak usually struggles against teams that can pressure the QB. The Cowboys are going to put up points for sure, but if Myles Garrett can do his thing and Cleveland’s two-headed monster at RB can do theirs, this game should come down to a FG either way.
If you are in any survivor pools, first of all, good luck. Those things are impossible because there is always a day where every upset in the book happens. But, we can research and try our best to find the mismatch that looks good for the week.
Last week we survived with the Colts. I love games like that, where you are not really worried about your team winning from the jump. This week there are a few large spreads and mismatches on paper, but I’ve locked in on the San Francisco 49ers. The Eagles are really banged up and I see the Niners dominating the offensive and defensive line of scrimmages. I know there are some bigger and safer teams out there like the Ravens or Rams, but I’ll get a little cute here. Let’s see if it burns me.
So, there you have it for Week 4. Good luck with your wagers and hopefully this sports intel helps with your Sunday NFL card.