Football is back, baby! Week 1 had it all, from blowouts to bad beats and backdoor covers, but I wouldn’t want it any other way. I went 2-2-1 in Week 1 and will keep track here weekly.
When it comes to Week 2, I call it overreaction week. Every team is not as good or as bad as it looked last weekend. But, thanks to recency bias, we will be able to get some good value on teams this weekend. So, without any more wait, let’s get to my favorite NFL bets for the weekend.
Here are our three favorite bets for this weekend:
Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles pk ‘em
Let down spot here for the Rams after stealing on in primetime against the Cowboys. It’s a little bit of a shorter week for them and they have to travel east. Philly should be healthier this week at OL and RB, which should push them over the edge.
The look ahead line for this game was actually Eagles -3.5, so to be getting this game at a pick is a steal. Recency bias at its fullest here, which is why I like the Eagles.
The public is all over the Rams in this one at a 70% clip, but over 55% of the money is on Philadelphia.
New Orleans Saints at Las Vegas Raiders +5.5
Call me crazy, but I like the Raiders in this spot. The Saints took care of business at home vs the TB Bucs, but now they travel to Las Vegas for this one. The public of course loves the Saints at a 70% clip, but the money is on the Raiders here. I wouldn’t be surprised if this number goes up to 6 and this becomes a 80/20 game where 80% of the public bets are on the Saints.
One of the reasons I like LV here is because last week’s Saints win was not as good as it looked. They were outgained in the air and on the ground and if it was not for a couple of Bucs miscues, NOLA might’ve lost straight up. Now the Saints will be without Michael Thomas. While the Raiders defense is suspect at best, the way to beat them is through their weak secondary. That is why the Thomas injury is big in this spot.
While I don’t trust the Raiders defense, I have faith in their offense to keep this one close. I would not be surprised at all if the Raiders had a chance to win this game late.
Cowboys -4.5 & Broncos +7.5
Overreaction here with the Cowboys after their loss in primetime. If not for that last minute OPI, Dallas probably wins that game. After taking the Falcons and failing like usual, I am fading them in this spot with the better team.
Even though the Steelers rolled against the Giants, that game was a lot closer than the final box score indicated. Drew Lock looked decent on Monday night, but more importantly, the Broncos D looked solid even without Von Miller. Too many points in this one.
If you are in any survivor pools, first of all, good luck. Those things are impossible because there is always a day where every upset in the book happens. But, we can research and try our best to find the mismatch that looks good for the week.
Last week we survived with the Buffalo Bills. This week there are a few large spreads and mismatches on paper, but I’ve locked in on the Tampa Bay Bucs. I know it might be a popular pick, but in a year of craziness, I am just trying to survive and advance. TB is off a loss, but looked good in their first game. IF not for two bad plays, they could’ve won straight up last weekend. Now they are at home, off of a loss, against a Carolina team that should get burned in the passing game. Their run defense is even worse. Don’t overthink this one.
So, there you have it for Week 2. Good luck with your wagers and hopefully this sports intel helps with your Sunday NFL card.