And, we’re back with our NFL Week 11 picks, after unfortunately, our first losing weekend of the season. It is a long season, and that is why we are going to get it back this weekend!
Vik’s Picks NFL Week 11
So, without further ado, let’s breakdown our three favorite NFL bets for Sunday!
Houston Texans +4 at Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens are on fire right now, and this matchup features two MVP QB candidates in Deshaun Watson and Lamar Jackson should be a fun one from the jump.
I know I just said the Ravens are hot, but matchup wise, I like the Texans rushing attack to have a nice day against the Ravens. Baltimore ranks in the bottom five against the run, and they are banged up defensively. The Texans would also be smart to run the ball, because that keeps the ball away from Lamar and his magic. But Watson is no joke himself, and I know he will be up to the challenge via air and on the ground.
From a Joes vs. Pros point of view, the Ravens are a little overvalued right now, especially coming off of their big back-to-back wins, which inflates this line a couple of points higher than it really should be. And, while the public is on the Ravens, the Pros saw that, and bit on Ravens at +4.5 early.
Both of these teams will be relying on the run, which should keep the game close throughout. I love Watson in an underdog spot, and see the Texans as a live dog (have a chance to win straight up) in this matchup, so I will gladly take the points.
New England Patriots at Philadelphia Eagles under 45
The Patriots are coming off of a loss and a bye, so you know they will be prepared for this one. Especially Hoodie, who you know will put together the perfect game plan to stop the Eagles run game.
Why will they be gearing up for Philly’s run game? Because the Eagles are missing DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery. The Pats already have the best secondary in the game, but with Jeffery out, the Eagles are in trouble. That would leave Philly with recently signed Jordan Matthews, Nelson Agholor and Mack Hollins (who)!
The Eagles also know if they want to hang around in this game, they have to be able to run the ball against the 24th ranked run defense of New England. Philly also plays at a slower pace of play than most teams. But even that is a problem this week, as Jordan Howard is in danger of being inactive.
The public likes the over, but there is reverse line movement on the under, as the line has now come down to 45. For all the reasons listed above, give me the under in this pick for NFL week 11. I think the Pats win this one in a close game at the end, but more than anything, I just don’t see how the Eagles put up a ton of points on offense.
Buffalo Bills-Miami Dolphins under 41
We have won on the Bills under the last two weekends, so why not keep going? I know ‘Fitzmagic’ is on fire right now, but he and the Dolphins go up against a Bills defense that is ranked ninth in passing DVOA. On top of that, they’ve given up only seven passing touchdowns all season long. It will be a tough task for even Fitz to light it up this Bills defense.
As we talked about last weekend, Buffalo’s coach, Sean McDermott, knows he has a young, turnover prone QB, so he will do what he always does. Rely on his run game and excellent defense to keep them around in this one.
While the public likes the over in this matchup at a 55% clip, the sharp money is on the under. We know why, as the Bills are a good weekly under play, going 14-6 in Allen’s career starts. Let’s keep riding that wave!
Survivor Pick, NFL Week 11:
If you are still alive in your survivor pool and haven’t used the Minnesota Vikings or Oakland Raiders, this is the weekend to do it. The Raiders are probably the team that you have not rolled the dice with, but this is the week to do it. Don’t even think twice about it.
Fun underdog parlay of the week:
Tampa Bay Bucs +6 and Denver Broncos +10
Risky, but what did you expect…this is an underdog parlay! Pairing those two teams up presents some value.
So, there you have it! Remember to practice good money management, so that we are still alive after times like last weekend. #trusttheprocess, and here is to a green weekend!
So, that’s it for my picks for NFL week 11, I know we’ll get back to winning ways.