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Finding Right Super Bowl Player Prop Challenging

Finding Right Super Bowl Player Prop Challenging

Hitting a brick wall with a hammer makes for a difficult time in construction.  That could be exactly what is seen, however, in Super Bowl LIV this Sunday.  Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is rightfully deserving of praise for his abilities and his throwing arm, but some could argue that he hasn’t had to meet a defense this entire season that matches that of the San Francisco 49ers.  This is one of the reasons that the upcoming NFL Championship game with the Super Bowl is going to be hot and why the player prop bets are even hotter.

What Super Bowl Player Prop Bets Look Good?

Mahomes is looking at an Over/Under on passing yards of 295.5 (-125 Over, 100 Under) according to many oddsmakers who do NFL prop betting.  In the run up to the Super Bowl, he threw 35 passes and completed 23 in both of the postseason games, picking up 321 yards in the first game and 294 in the second.  With those types of marks, and the fact that the Chiefs haven’t exactly produced the best running game, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to take the Over on his passing yards prediction for this Sunday.

On the other side, quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo has been a little weak in the air, especially compared to Mahomes.  In both playoff games, he only combined for a total of 27 passes with 208 yards.  Going into the big game this weekend, he’s getting an Over/Under of 238.5, at -112 on both, but he hasn’t produced enough in the air for this to be a sure thing.  The Under would be a more appropriate gamble in this case.


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Tyreek Hill should be a dominant wide receiver in tandem with Mahomes.  He is known for pulling off some big plays this season, but whether or not he can keep it up this Sunday isn’t clear.  Across his most recent seven games, the most he managed was 67 yards, but also suffered a goose egg once.  This is part of the reason he’s getting 74.5, -112 on the Over and Under, and the Niners defense is going to keep him in check as much as they can.  The Under is a decent play on Hill this weekend.

San Fran tight end George Kittle is only getting an Over/Under of 70.5 yards (-112 for both), but it isn’t necessarily his fault.  The Niners have figured out the science behind proper clock management, and he’s simply not going to be given the ball as often.  Still, because of his ability, he’s going to be a defensive target and an Under might be the way to go if looking for some extra action.

There’s one player deserving of an Over bet in a big way.  Raheem Mostert was a Niners force when the team beat the Green Bay Packers in the playoffs, and he’s getting 60.5 on the Over/Under.  With 220 yards (not to mention four touchdowns) against the Packers, he definitely has the talent and the stamina.  However, the Chiefs recognize it, as well, and will be looking to keep pressure on him as much as possible.  Still, the running back could easily pick up 60 on just two plays.  Super Bowl looking to sweeten the deal can check out a +450 player prop bet against Mostert getting more than 100.5 yards – he could go all the way.

Erik is a writer and a sports nut who has had the good fortune to be able to experience a wide variety of world sports action up close and personal. He enjoys staying on top of the changing world of athletics and capitalizing on his writing skills to offer a unique take on what's going on in the ever-changing athletics ecosystem.

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