Week 7 of the NFL season is upon us and we have a few exploitable prop bets for your consideration this weekend.
Derrick Henry (TEN) 48.5 rushing yards (-115)
Los Angeles Chargers vs Tennessee Titans | Sunday, 4:05 PM ET
Derrick Henry has not been great this season, let’s be honest. In fact, the entire Titans offense hit rock bottom last weekend in a shutout in Denver. A game that saw subpar performances from Henry, Corey Davis, Delanie Walker, and Marcus Mariota. The latter even lost his starting gig to Ryan Tannehill of all people. After outperforming Mariota, completing 13 of 16 for 144 YDS after taking over in the third quarter, Tannehill has earned the start this week. Henry is coming off his worst game of the season, running for just 28 or 15 carries and three targets for one catch. Brutal.
But with Mariota’s well-documented struggles, defenses were afforded the luxury to stack the box more against the Titans and keep their running game at bay. As incredible as this sounds, Tannehill appears to be a better option for the Titans right now and might open up the field for Henry to find his legs. I actually expect Tannehill to build upon his performance last week and give this offense a much-needed jolt.
Jared Goff (LAR) OVER 326 passing yards (+127)
Atlanta Falcons vs Los Angeles Rams | Sunday, 1:00 PM ET
Goff’s previous outing at the Coliseum has many LA fans hitting the panic button on their starting quarterback. It’s not a totally unwarranted respnse considering the state of this team after coming off a Super Bowl appearance. They have lost three in a row and have looked lost on both sides of the ball. The Rams defense was expected to be a top 5 crew, they are far from it. Their offense has seen similar struggles, but I expect a resurgence on Sunday.
This is a clear case of recency bias and one you should avoid. The Falcons are the kindest defense to opposing quarterback so far this year so no better time for Goff to get back on track with a big game. I trust Sean McVay to do his part in getting Goff back to his championship-caliber play and ensure the Rams don’t drop four straight.
Tom Brady OVER 305 passing yards, James White OVER 6 receptions & 45 receiving yards
New England Patriots vs New York Jets | Monday, 8:15 PM ET
The Patriots are coming off a hard-fought but a solid win against the New York Giants last weekend. There were some ugly patches, including very un-Patriot like turnovers on offense. But in typical Patriots fashion, Brady and Belichick found a way to win. The New York Jets are up next, a team that just stunned the league by beating the Dallas Cowboys for their first win of the season.
This bet is not only based on the Patriots but also the “new-look” Jets. With Sam Darnold under center, this looks like a different Jets team and this bodes well for Patriots offensive props. While I don’t think the Jets have a realistic shot at winning this game, I think they keep things interesting enough for the Patriots offense to accrue a strong week on the stat sheet.
Tom Brady is 28-6 lifetime against the Jets, and aside from a few games in the Rex Ryan era, he has dominated them regularly. Brady has surpassed the 305-yard mark four of his six games this season, including his last two games against tough NFC opponents. What makes this prop bet particularly attractive is one of his favorite targets is attached.
James White is the Patriots No. 1 running back but has just 16 rushing attempts in five starts. So how does that make sense? Well, James is more of a weapon in the passing game and always has been. Compare his 16 rushes to his 31 completions and its clear what his role in this offense is. White is Brady’s security blanket with Gronk off the team and they have developed a strong connection over the last couple of seasons.
White needs to tick two boxes to cash this prop and I feel great about both. Over six receptions, well he has failed to do this only twice, and one was a five-reception game last week with a sixth being called back. His worst outing was a four-reception game against the Dolphins but that was a weird game which saw Brady throw for less than 200 yards in a 43-0 shutout.
As far as the 45 receiving yards go, he has failed to hit this mark just once, in that same Dolphins game, which is a clear outlier. The Jets are no pushovers on defense but I believe these totals are easily attainable by Brady and White and feel confident in these two to lead the offense Monday night.