Week 7 is here and brings with it a very profitable betting trend. On the year, underdogs are 61.54% against the spread and 66.13% when playing on the road. Based on this we’re pounding the underdogs this weekend in what could turn into a super-profitable NFL parlay.
Los Angeles Rams (3-3) vs Atlant Falcons (1-5)
Sunday, October 20th at Mercedes-Benz Stadium Atlanta, Georgia | 1:00 PM ET
It may seem risky to bet on perhaps the most disappointing team in the NFL so far this season. The Falcons were pegged as a division title contender and a real threat in the playoffs. Cut to Week 7, the Falcons are 1-5 and some of those losses weren’t even close. Their only win came against a tough Philly team but have also been beaten by teams who are considered inferior. It’s rather confounding how Atlanta has found themselves almost out of the playoffs already. They have a talented team with a great supporting cast. But they have struggled to pull things together with mistakes on both ends, highlighted by a brutal missed extra point last weekend.
Coach Dan Quinn has done an admirable job scoring points this year, but has lacked any sort of quality defense up until now. The Falcons rank second to last with 31 points allowed per game and are in the bottom third at passing YPG (271.2) and rushing YPG (117.7). Despite all this, I see this being the game in which Atlanta turns things around. A lot of that has to do with their opponent’s struggles.
Anyone who pegged the Rams as a prime candidate for a Super Bowl hangover has yet to be proven wrong. After a hot start, the Rams have dropped three games on the trot including getting roughed up by the 49ers last week. Their offensive line looked more Pop Warner than Kurt Warner. Todd Gurley appears to be a shadow of his former self, perhaps confirming offseason reports that his legs were shot after such a heavy workload the past two seasons. If one stat really stands out its this. The Rams have given up twice as many turnovers (26) in their last 12 games than they have scored touchdowns (13). Not great for a team looking to make a repeat Super Bowl appearance.
This game will ultimately be a huge indicator of what we can expect from these two underperforming teams moving forward. I like the addition of Jalen Ramsey to the Rams defense, but this is his first game there with just two practices and it’s hard to predict what to expect from the controversial star.
A loss for the Falcons likely means the loss of a job for Dan Quinn and a truly lost season. A loss for the Rams would be devastating for a team coming off an Super Bowl appearance with a fourth consecutive loss. I like the Falcons chances to surpass expectations and soar to an ATS victory Sunday afternoon.
Best Bet: Atlanta Falcons +3 (-115)
Los Angeles Chargers vs Tennessee Titans
Nissan Stadium, Nashville | Sunday, 4:05 PM ET
What a fall from grace Marcus Mariota has experienced this season. Going from one of the more exciting quarterbacks in the league to being benched for Ryan Tannehill. You know things are rough when you turn to Tannehill to start games for you. But if last season’s Fitzmagic explosion is any indication, sometimes a washed-up veteran is just what a struggling team needs.
Derrick Henry and Delanie Walker will really need to step up and make some noise on Sunday if the Titans have a shot at this one. Corey Davis has been a bust thus far and Adam Humphries and AJ Brown have been invisible.
The Chargers, while a better team on paper, are also in rough shape right now. They have struggled to get their offense going with Melvin Gordon sidelined and their offensive line playing poorly, to say the least. Truth is, they have some of the best offensive weapons in the league. Between Gordon, Austin Eckler and Keenen Allen, Phillip Rivers should have no issue getting the ball to somebody.
Despite that, I think much like the Falcons, this is the week Los Angeles turns things around. They have gotten their best offensive weapon back and he should have enough practice time now to be fully deployed. Their offensive line is playing poorly but should be capable of giving Rivers enough time to outscore and offense helmed by Ryan Tannehill.
Best Bet: Los Angeles Chargers +2 (+104)
Baltimore Ravens (4-2) vs Seattle Seahawks (5-1)
CenturyLink Field, Seattle | Sunday, 4:25 PM ET
We all know that the Ravens have traditionally had a top-ranked defense. What they usually lacked was an offense that could score enough points to eke out those close defensive games. Enter dual-threat Quarterback Lamar Jackson. Deployed last year in a way we haven’t seen since the days of Michael Vick, and lo and behold, it started to work. Cut to 2019 and Jackson has the Ravens sitting pretty at 4-2 and is setting rushing records left and right.
He added to his accolades this past weekend by winning the FedEx Ground Player of the Week Award. He is the first quarterback to do so in the 17 years that award has been in effect. This is a weekly award mind you. There have come and gone 289 weeks of NFL football in that span and no QB has been chosen for that accolade. The comparison to Michael Vick earlier might honestly be selling Jackson short, he has the skills to be much better all around.
Cut to the Seahawks who also have a quarterback playing out of his mind this year. Russell Wilson, in fact, is your current frontrunner for offensive MVP this season. And it’s no wonder with 14 touchdowns and not a single interception thrown this year. He and Tyler Lockett have been hooking up left and right and with DK Metcalf, David Moore and Jaron Brown contributing, this is a dangerous offense, to say the least.
While it’s clear to me the Seahawks are a better team, the Ravens actually match up very well against them. The Seahawks will struggle to run the ball and to contain such a unique offensive weapon such as Jackson. I think Baltimore has what it takes to keep things close and secure a cover in what should be one of the more exciting games to watch this weekend.
Best Bet: Baltimore Ravens +3.5 (-115)
$100 parlay pays out $614.00