After going 6-0 in Week 12 and 13, we stumbled a little bit with a 1-2 week in Week 14. Overall, it has been a positive season for us, so let’s keep trusting the process as we look at our NFL picks and parlays for Week 15. We’re now in the final three weeks of the season, with a ton of playoff implications on the line, so this should be an insane Sunday.
NFL Week 15 Picks & Parlays
Here are our three favorite online bets for this weekend:
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans -3
This game might be the one that decides the AFC South! A lot of times I make my picks based on the situation. This game here, is an example of that. The Titans come into this game hot and are ascending right now, while the Texans are sputtering a bit the last few weeks.
The “sharps” or “pros” also seem to agree, as while the public is hitting the Texans at a 55% clip, the line has actually shot up from Titans -1 to -3. This indicates reverse line movement on Tennessee.
Ryan Tannehill has given this Titans team a spark. Look for him to have a big game against a Texans defense that just got carved by up Drew Lock last weekend. With Houston unable to generate pressure, Tanny should be able to go up and down the field in this game.
I’m buying high on the Titans in this one in the first of our picks for NFL week 15. While it might be hard to fade Deshaun Watson in this spot here, the Titans are playing great football in all three phases of the ball. Their defense is playing great, especially their run defense. Look for the Titans to pull away late.
Chicago Bears +4.5 at Green Bay Packers
Call me crazy, but I like the Bears in this spot. While the Packers have been grinding out the wins, this is a Bears D that can limit Rodgers.
The Packers have a suspect run defense, which is a bad matchup for them against a Bears team that has finally committed to running the ball. The Packers have given up 121.4 rushing yards per game over the last five games, including six touchdowns. As long as Matt Nagy runs the football, David Montgomery and Tarik Cohen are in line for big games.
The Packers are also susceptible to big plays, allowing the most in the league. Can QB1 for the Bears take advantage of it? If so, it might be a long day for the Packers defense.
The Bears’ defense should hold its own in this one as well. They’ve been stingy allowing points, and this particular Khalil Mack defensive unit has held Rodgers in check their last three times out. Chicago getting Akiem Hicks back can be the boost they needed along the DL that helps Mack and co. get back on track.
Lastly, there is huge reverse line movement on the Bears in this game. The game opened Green Bay -6 in most spots, and has been hammered down to GB -4.5 or 4 in most spots. While the public is looking at an easy Packers win, the sharps took the Bears. Time to follow their lead in this game.
Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Chargers +2.5
There are a ton of reasons to like the Chargers in this spot. The Chargers have a +2.8 edge in Pythagorean win differential over the Vikings. We’ve covered the three weeks with teams that have had edges like this.
The Chargers pass defense has also been playing lights out, especially since the return of star Derwin James. The Vikings are also dealing with a couple of injuries, as their star RB Dalvin Cook is banged up, and so is his backup Alexander Mattison.
The public is also all over Minnesota at a 70% clip, but the line has come down from Vikings -3 to a anywhere from -2.5 to even 2 in most spots. This indicates huge reverse line movement on the Chargers.
I’m riding with the sharps in this one, as I see the Chargers as a live dog (a chance to win straight up).
Washington Redskins +6, Arizona Cardinals +3
We’ve hit on a couple of these this season, so why not? If you are looking to sprinkle on a couple of dogs, I’d look at the Skins and Cardinals. These are always risky, but there is some value in the Redskins. It is a division game, and they’d like nothing more than to ruin Philly’s chances at the playoffs. They have also quietly played some good football the last few weekends. With the Cards, it comes down to this. Do you really trust the Browns laying points on the road? The Cards have the firepower to keep up on the offensive side of the football.
So, there you have it for our picks for NFL Week 15. Good luck with your wagers and hopefully this sports intel helps with your Sunday NFL card.