With just a few weeks before the NFL regular season ends we have precious little time until the playoffs kick-off. With that in mind let’s make the most of that time with another week of NFL Props Picks for Week 15.
NFL Player Props Week 15
Jameis Winston OVER 300+ Passing Yards and TB to win vs Detroit Lions (-146)
Let’s be clear: Jameis Winston should be in line for a monster game in Week 15 against a truly putrid Lions defense. Winston has made a number of appearances in this weekly article and has done well for us in 2019. His only real downside is his interception rate, which is staggering if I’m honest, but that doesn’t really affect his total yardage output. I am back on him this week again the Lions, despite an injury to his throwing hand, based upon just how back the Lions are. In fact, their defense has also made a number of appearances here throughout the season and fading them has done well for us.
While it is true that Winston is having issues with the thumb on his throwing hand and will be without wideout Mike Evans, I’m not worried, and here’s why: He was in the same situation for most of last week’s game against the Colts and finished with 456 passing yards and four touchdowns. Evans left the game in the first quarter with what we now know to be a season-ending hamstring injury and yet, the offense still found a way to put up big numbers in the air. It can be argued that Winston’s thumb would have been in much worse shape last weekend as well. This, in and of itself, suggests to me that he will be fine to rock and roll in Week 15.
Winston is averaging 316.5 yards per game on the year and has eclipsed 300 in 9 of his previous 11 games. The Lions will be lost, even with Evans sidelined, as they are the worst defense in the NFL. Detroit allows 6.6 yards per play at home in 2019, worst in the league, and have been carved up by the likes of Derek Carr, Daniel Jones and Michell Trubisky (twice) so far this season alone. The Lions are also the worst team in the league when it comes to stopping the pass on their home turf, giving up 332.5 yards per game on average to opposing quarterbacks.
Sure, Winston has burned us before. He has put up a few stinkers in good matchups and gone off against teams he had no business beating up on. He is a bit enigmatic and volatile but I just can’t ignore how bad the Lions are and am rolling with Winston again this Sunday.
Eli Manning OVER 256.5 Passing Yards vs Dolphins
Bet you didn’t see this one coming. Eli Manning makes his first, and likely last, appearance in this column. Being benched for most of the season it’s easy to see why his name has not shown up here, but with Danny Dimes injured, the old man must step up again this week. He filled in admirably last weekend in an overtime loss to the Eagles. The veteran with the thousand-yard stare completed 15 of 30 passes for 203 yards and 2 touchdowns. Perhaps more importantly, he did not cede a turnover.
This is a big game for Manning as it’s the last game he will likely play as a Giant at Met Life Stadium. The crowd, for a change, should be rather supportive of him and this would be a perfect game for him to go off and then sail into the sunset afterward.
The matchup doesn’t get much better, with the Dolphins defense in shambles as it has been all year. They are 23rd in the league an in opposing QB yards, giving up an average of 256 yards passing per game. Seems their secondary may be fatigued this deep into the season, however, as that number has risen to 292 in their previous three contests. Seems that teams have taken notice of this as opponents have been passing more on the Dolphins the last couple of weeks, almost hitting the 60% mark.
I think the Giants will continue this trend, maybe try to ease the workload of Barkley, and air it out on the Dolphins this Sunday.
So, that’s it for our NFL Week 15 player props, see ya soon.