We’re down to the best of the best now in the NFL. All four games feature great matchups, so we did the homework to help you breakdown the games from a wagering aspect with our NFL Playoffs picks.
Here is our breakdown of all four games this weekend:
Picks NFL Playoffs 2020
Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers -7
The first game on the slate for our Playoff picks features Jimmy G in his first NFL postseason start. It should be a good one, but I like the Niners for a couple of reasons.
Kirk Cousins struggle under pressure, and the Niners bring the most of it. The beauty of San Francisco’s defense is their ability to bring that pressure with just their front four, without blitzing. The Niners also get back Dee Ford for this game. SF’s defensive splits with and without Ford is significant. They post a 16% sack rate with Ford, as opposed to just 5% without. Look for him to have a huge impact on today’s game.
Another reason to like the Niners is health. SF comes into this game healthier overall, looking good at all key positions. Their defense gets back Kwon Alexander, Jaquiski Tartt, and Ford, as mentioned above. On the flip side, the Vikings WRs are dealing with injuries and missed practice time this week.
Even though the season-long numbers look good for the Minnesota defense, the Vikings have also given up huge games to some of the best RBs and TEs this season. I would not be surprised to see Mosert or Kittle go wild, or possibly both.
The public seems to disagree, with 55%+ of the public taking the Vikings But, the line has stayed steady at 7 this week.
Ultimately, I see SF wearing out the Vikings in the second half.
Tennessee Titans +10 at Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens literally have been the best team in the NFL all season long, but I like Tennesee in this game.
The way to slow down the Ravens is to keep the ball away from Lamar Jackson and their offense. Something the Titans are equipped to do. They have a great running game led by beast Derrick Henry. And, coach Vrabel has been committed to it, even if other teams are preparing for it.
Health wise, the biggest name to keep an eye on is Mark Ingram, who hurt his calf in Week 16. Him being limited definitely slows down the Ravens offense.
Weather wise, strong winds are expected for this game. This, to me, definitely helps the Titans. They’ll look to play a ball control type game.
The public is all over the Ravens, and who can blame them? Over 75% of the public bets are coming in on Baltimore, but the line has dropped. This indicated reverse line movement, as some of the sharps took the Titans early. From a spread perspective, make sure you shop around. The line is down to 9.5 in some books. Try to get 10 if you can, because every point counts against the machine known as the Ravens.
I know this seems like a longshot, but there is definitely value on the Titans in this one. If Tennessee can stay in this game early, they’ll be around at the end.
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs -9
What a comeback by the Texans last weekend. The second half comeback by Watson and co. was a great one. But, with that being said, I’m all over the Chiefs in this matchup for a myriad of reasons.
The first thing that sticks out is the coaching mismatch. Andy Reid vs. Bill O’Brien? No brainer for me. Reid has been terrific after bye weeks, which is exactly what this week is. O’Brien also leaves you scratching your head on his football decisions pretty much everytime you watch him week in and week out.
While the Texans did win at Arrowhead earlier this season, this is a completely different situation. The Chiefs were decimated with injuries. They’ll be ready to go in this one, and Arrowhead will definitely be rocking.
Defensively, I don’t think the Texans can get enough stops in this one. Look for the Chiefs to be able to move the ball on the ground and through the air. Houston ranks 28th in passing points allowed and 24th in rate of runs allowed to gain 10 yards or more. The Texans are also ranked in the 20s defending TEs, including 21st in yardage allowed per game to that position. Mahomes should put on a show and Kelce and Williams should have a great games as well.
The public is split 50-50 in this one, but the line has shot up from Chiefs -8 to 9/9.5 in most books. Huge sharp money came in early on KC to steam that line up. As always, make sure you shop around for the best line to grab 9s, as there are still some out there.
Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers -4
The public is on Seattle in this game. The Hawks continue to ride Russell Wilson and his magic, but they are flawed metrically, especially on defense. But, it looks like there is reverse line movement on GB in this one. While the public hits Seattle at a 60% clip, the line has gone up to GB -4 and -4.5 in some books from the opening line of 3.5. I too like the Packers in this spot.
Seattle has the 26th ranked rush defense per DVOA, which Green Bay’s Aaron Jones should be able to exploit in this game. Seattle is also ranked 29th in receptions allowed per game and 30th in yards allowed per game to opposing WR1 options. This sets up perfectly for Davante Adams to also have a huge impact on this game. Also, while Jimmy Graham has had a down season, Seattle struggles vs Tes badly ranking 31st in yards allowed. Graham might be able to help keep the chains moving for GB, especially on big third downs.
On defense, Seattle’s OL is decimated by injuries in the NFL. While Wilson is Houdini, it still makes a big difference being constantly under pressure all game long and that is what we will see when these two teams play. Look for the Smith’s to bring pressure constantly in this matchup.
Seattle also has lost its three best running backs to injuries. Without an OL and RBs, it is going to be tough to beat GB, as that is what they are susceptible to the most. Teams with strong running attacks.
It’s also going to be a cold one in GB this weekend. Rodgers numbers in cold games vs his opposing QBs are like night at day. Just another small advantage, but everything counts when it gets down to the best of the best and tight games.
So, there you have out NFL picks and parlays for the Playoffs. Good luck with your wagers and hopefully this sports intel helps with your weekend NFL card.