NFL Week 1 is finally here, so it is time to have fun, and of course make some money! Welcome to Week 1 of our NFL Joes vs. Pros breakdown. If you are interested in who the “sharp” money is on, or if games have reverse line movement, this is the place to be. This should not be the end all be all for your wagers, but just another tool to consider while you are putting your card together. Sports Insights is where we get our percentages from.
Before we jump into it, some general betting terms to know:
Joes: Who the general public is overwhelmingly betting on. Around 60% or higher is a good baseline we like to use for this piece.
Pros: Sharps, Wiseguys, Syndicates, big bettors, whatever you want to call them. Basically, who the big money is on in the game.
Reverse Line Movement (RLM): When the majority of bets are on one side, but the line moves in the opposite direction. Usually an indicator of “smart” money.
For this article in particular, we will focus on games that have both reverse line movement and Joes vs. Pros disparity. Only one game fits:
Los Angeles Rams at Carolina Panthers (+2)
While 70% of the public is on the Rams, the “Pro” money has come in on Panthers heavy (63%), driving this line down from -3 to -2. This move indicates huge reverse line movement on the Panthers.
Why? Super Bowl losers are also 3-16 ATS Week 1 the following season. Also, Jared Goff’s home vs. away splits last season were day (home) and night (away). Lastly, the Panthers started last season 6-2 before Cam Newton got injured and bring back the majority of their core this season.
I also had a chance to speak with Alan Berg, Sr. Oddsmaker at the Caesars. It is always great to get the oddsmakers point of view when it comes to these games. Berg had the following to say about Sunday’s games:
Biggest needs: Washington Redskins, Miami Dolphins, Jacksonville Jaguars, Carolina Panthers, Tennessee Titans, Arizona Cardinals
The Panthers and Jags are also the sharp side according to Berg.
So, there you have it. Hopefully this sports intel helps with your Sunday NFL card.