Welcome to our weekly weekend props post! A lot of bookmakers spend less time making player prop odds than they do on more traditional NFL lines (point-spread, total). Because of this reason, player props can offer some of the best betting value on the board in any given week. We’re here to do the research for you so that we can help you exploit these situations on a weekly basis. Don’t forget to shop around for the best lines.
Remember, it’s all about the matchups!
Here are our four favorite prop bets for Week 1:
Chris Carson Over 76 Rushing Yards (-115)
Make sure you have a piece of Carson in everything you dabble in this weekend. DFS, gambling, you name it, Carson should deliver.
Why? Last season, the Seattle Seahawks shifted their offensive philosophy to become a more run-heavy team. That in turn led to the Hawks leading the league in rush rate, at 52.4 percent. Carson also produced, averaging 82.2 rushing yards per game last season.
Seattle also comes into this game as a big home favorite, which should produce a favorable game script. We already know the Seahawks are looking to run, but the script helps because by all indications this game should be a blowout. Once the Hawks get up big, they will, you guessed it, run it even more against a terrible Cincinnati Bengals defense. This is a Bengals team that ranked 29th against the rush last season.
Look for a big day from Carson on the ground.
Adam Thielen Over 82 Receiving Yards
Minnesota Vikings WR Stefon Diggs is dealing with a hamstring injury. While Diggs is questionable for Sunday, his injury opens up the door for Thielen to have a huge game.
Here is why: Stefon Diggs has played through injury in six games since 2015. In those particular games, Thielen — who played in five — has been targeted 9.8 times per game and has averaged 93.2 receiving yards per game.
Where there are targets, there are yards, and Thielen should see plenty of targets this Sunday with a gimpy Diggs.
Matt Ryan Under 275 Passing Yards
In three games againstthe Minnesota Vikings under coach Mike Zimmer, Matt Ryan has averaged just 233.8 passing yards per game with a total of four total touchdown passes and four interceptions. As you can see, this Vikings defense has definitely had Ryan’s number.
The Falcons also brought in Dirk Koetter to take over as offensive coordinator. While his is Koetter’s second time around with the Falcons, it will still take Atlanta’s new players and offense as a whole a few weeks before they are running on all cylinders, regardless of their plethora of weapons.
Patrick Mahomes Under 3 Passing Touchdowns
While this might look like an easy over bet on paper, if you dig into the numbers, you will see the opposite. As atrocious as the Jacksonville Jaguars were last year, their defense still held their ground, especially when it came to passing touchdowns. Even with their regression last season, the Jags still managed to give up only 17 passing touchdowns all season long.
Here are some more fun tidbits … Jacksonville has allowed multiple touchdown passes in just nine games total over the past two seasons. One of Mahomes’ worst passing weeks came at home against the Jaguars last season. Get this, it was the only game in which he failed to throw a touchdown pass.
No matter how you feel about the Jags coming into this season, their defense is still elite, and should be able to limit Mahomes in this one.
Good luck this weekend! May the props be forever in your favor.