NFL Week 2 is here, so it is time once again to have fun, and of course make some money! Welcome to Week 2 of our NFL Joes vs. Pros breakdown. If you are interested in who the “sharp” money is on, or if games have reverse line movement, this is the place to be. This should not be the end all be all for your wagers, but just another tool to consider while you are putting your card together. Sports Insights is where we get our percentages from.
Before we jump into it, some general betting terms to know:
Joes: Who the general public is overwhelmingly betting on. Around 60% or higher is a good baseline we like to use for this piece.
Pros: Sharps, Wiseguys, Syndicates, big bettors, whatever you want to call them. Basically, who the big money is on in the game.
Reverse Line Movement (RLM): When the majority of bets are on one side, but the line moves in the opposite direction. Usually an indicator of “smart” money.
For this article in particular, we will focus on games that have both reverse line movement and Joes vs. Pros disparity. Only one game fits:
Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders (+7.5)
While 71% of the public is on the Chiefs , the “Pro” money has come in on Raiders heavy (63%), driving this line down from -8 to -7.5, even 7 in some books. This move indicates huge reverse line movement on the Raiders.
Possible reasons why? Patrick Mahomes is hobbled (ankle) and Tyreek Hill is out (clavicle). Also, the Raiders usually play the Chiefs tough year in and year out.
Interesting nugget: 1-0 teams that are road favorites in Week 2 are 0-9 ATS since 2016. 6-24 ATS since 2010. The Chiefs fall into that category.
I also had a chance to speak with Alan Berg, Sr. Oddsmaker at the Caesars. It is always great to get the oddsmakers point of view when it comes to these games. Berg had the following to say about Sunday’s games:
Biggest needs: Indianapolis Colts, Detroit Lions, Arizona Cardinals, Miami Dolphins, Washington Redskins
The “Sharps” are on the Titans Under, the Lions, and the Raiders, according to Berg.
So, there you have it. Hopefully this sports intel helps with your Sunday NFL card.