Are you ready for some football? A Monday night party? The Cleveland Browns face off against New York Jets tonight, so let’s break down the game from a gambling angle.
Browns (-6.5) at Jets; Total: 45.5
The biggest news impacting this game from a betting point of view is that the Jets will be missing their starting quarterback Sam Darnold due to mononucleosis, better known as the “kissing disease.”
When the news broke that the Jets QB wouldn’t play, the line shifted drastically, with sportsbooks moving the spread from Cleveland -2.5 to -6.5 and even to -7 in some books.
The Jets are also missing the quarterback of their defense in C.J. Mosley, who is also out with a groin injury. Mosley was quietly having a monster game in Week 1, before he went out. It is important to note that the Jets defense collapsed after his injury.
With Darnold and Mosley out, and Le’veon Bell nursing a shoulder injury, the Jets will need their backup quarterback Trevor Siemian to step up. Siemian faces a hungry and somewhat desperate Browns team looking to avoid an 0-2 start.
After a terrible Week 1 loss to the Titans, the Browns now have a golden opportunity to turn things around vs. the Siemian-led Jets.
One trend that favors the Jets in this spot is that Siemian is 3-1 ATS as a home underdog in his career.
The “public” is all over Cleveland tonight. Did you expect anything less once the Darnold news broke? The public is not fazed by the terrible Browns performance last week. They see a Super Bowl contender who just has to beat an injury-riddled Jets team by a touchdown. Easy peasy, right?
There are too many variables in this game to take a side. The Siemian-led Jets offense could be a disaster. Baker Mayfield took a beating last game, is he a 100 percent? Can Mayfield and Odell Beckham pour it on enough to not only win but cover a touchdown on the road? Is the Browns offensive line really as bad as we saw in Week 1? We will find out soon enough.
The pick we like here instead is the Under 45.5. The Browns defensive line led by Myles Garrett should be able to disrupt Siemian, and the Jets defense still has some playmakers on it, led by safety Jamal Adams.
This is a game featuring two strong defenses and a ton of question marks on the offensive side of the ball, albeit more on New York’s side. Either way, get ready to see a lot of Bell and Nick Chubb tonight.
This might be a brutal prime-time game to watch, but the game script does bode well for an Under tonight. Good luck on your wagers!