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NFL Week 14 Props: Trust The Quarterbacks

The regular season is winding down but we aren’t letting up on our pursuit of NFL props betting profits.  Join us for another week, and another trio of NFL player props to add some excitement to your week 14 betting tickets.

Trust QBs For NFL Week 14 Props

Lamar Jackson OVER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+165) vs Buffalo Bills

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Right off the jump here I want to acknowledge that this is a risky bet.  The Bills have given up just nine passing touchdowns this season, 2nd only to the Patriots in that department.  Buffalo also ranks third in the league in coverage grading with a truly scary secondary.  I also believe the Ravens will struggle to put up any significant yardage through the air on Sunday afternoon.

Thing is, the Ravens don’t need to put up big numbers in the passing game because they are the best running team in the country.  Not only do the Ravens run more than any other team with a 55.1% rush rate, but they also do so more effectively with a team average of 5.6 yards per carry.  This is a huge problem for the Bills, who rank 22nd in run defense and have been railroaded by far worse ground attacks.

So while the Ravens won’t be breaking any records in the passing game, they will still be able to move the ball with relative ease.  This will provide Baltimore with ample red-zone trips and therefore more chances at some short passing touchdowns.  Jackson has gone 2 or more TD passes in 6 of 12 games this year and many of those were within the red-zone.  While this comes down to a coin flip, at +165 odds I’m happy to take the chance on Jackson this Sunday.

Sam Darnold OVER 248.5 Passing Yards (-115) vs Miami Dolphins

Darnold has really upped his game in the second half of the season which is why he makes our props picks from NFL Week 14.  The Jets’ 2018 first-round prospect has ranked among the Top-10 in the NFL in total passing yards (6th) and passing touchdowns (7th) since these teams last met on November 3rd.  On the season Darnold has a 63% completion rate, 13 touchdowns, and 2,154 yards.  Sure, he also has ten interceptions but that isn’t all that relevant to this specific bet.

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One possible cause for concern is that Darnold has traditionally struggled against the Dolphins.  This is particularly surprising because, well, it’s the Dolphins. Darnold is actually 0-3 in his career against Miami, with just two touchdowns and seven interceptions.  So it’s fair to say that I believe he has the best game of his career against Miami on Sunday.  Not the highest bar to set I admit, but he doesn’t have to do much to cash this bet for us.

His best game to date against the Dolphins saw him eclipse 250 yards when these teams met earlier in the season.  He completed 69% of his passes and went for one touchdown and no interceptions.  Not enough to get the win for the Jets but would be more than enough for us to score a W.  Despite a few shocking wins of late, the Dolphins are still terrible on defense and have allowed a touchdown pass on 7.3% of all passing attempts, good for worst in the league.

Additionally, they are the second-worst team at pressuring opposing quarterbacks which will give Darnold ample time in a clean pocket to work his magic.

Kirk Cousins OVER 271 Passing Yards (-120) vs Detroit Lions

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Much like the previous NFL props pick for week 14, a lot of this bet is based on just how bad the opposing defense is.  In this case, Kirk Cousins will enjoy an afternoon against the lowly Lions defense.  A squad that has allowed the second-most yards per completion to opposing quarterbacks this season.  That combined with a rate of pressure which ranks fifth-worst in the NFL and it’s easy to see how much of an inviting matchup this is for Cousins.

Much like Darnold, Cousins should enjoy plenty of time to get set and make smart throws against Detroit.  When Cousins is no pressured this year he is a top-five NFL quarterback in yards per attempt, passer rating, and completion percentage.  Ergo, when Cousins has time to work he makes the most out of it.  This will be one of those games and I fully expect Cousins to exploit the garbage secondary which the Lions trot out on a weekly basis and flirt with the 300-yard mark.

Matt De Saro is a journalist and media personality specializing in sport, specifically sports betting. He has hosted podcasts and web shows since 2014 which aim to educate and inform sports bettors worldwide. Matt has created content, both written & media, for the likes of Fansided, Forbes, Sportsbook Review & YouWager. With a background in statistical analysis and a love of everything sports, he takes an outside the box approach to reporting on the sports betting industry.

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