Now that most of the big free agents have changed teams and the NFL Draft is over, we have a pretty good idea of what rosters are going to look like. After taking into account rosters, SOS, point differential, injuries, new QBs and coaches, I have a better feel for the over unders that I like and don’t like for the upcoming season. So, I’ll be looking at each division in turn and will begin with the NFC North over under in a bit more detail.
Of course now that the draft is over, oddsmakers have also adjusted some of their season totals. Here are the most updated totals, but make sure you shop around:
2020 NFL Over Under Win Totals
Baltimore Ravens: 11.5
Kansas City Chiefs: 11.5
New Orleans Saints: 10.5
San Francisco 49ers: 10.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 10
Dallas Cowboys: 9.5
Philadelphia Eagles: 9.5
Seattle Seahawks: 9.5
Buffalo Bills: 9
Green Bay Packers: 9
Indianapolis Colts: 9
New England Patriots: 9
Pittsburgh Steelers: 9
Chicago Bears: 8.5
Cleveland Browns: 8.5
Los Angeles Rams: 8.5
Minnesota Vikings: 8.5
Tennessee Titans: 8.5
Houston Texans: 8
Atlanta Falcons: 7.5
Denver Broncos: 7.5
Las Vegas Raiders: 7.5
Los Angeles Chargers: 7.5
Arizona Cardinals: 7
Detroit Lions: 6.5
New York Giants: 6.5
New York Jets: 6.5
Miami Dolphins: 6
Carolina Panthers: 5.5
Cincinnati Bengals: 5.5
Jacksonville Jaguars: 5
Washington Redskins: 5
Buckle up, because I am going to start giving you my division by division breakdown on how I see these totals playing out this season. First up, the NFC North over under bets to consider..
NFC North Over Under 2020
Green Bay Packers under 9
The Packers had a chance to finally give Aaron Rodgers what he’s so desperately been asking for, an offensive weapon in the first round of the draft. Instead, they decided to go with a long-term plan at QB, drafting his successor instead.
Then, to everyone’s surprise, Green Bay then also decided to go with a running back in the 2nd round.
I know draft grades are all a crapshoot, but the Packers got shredded by pretty much every single publication, scout and media member out there after last weekend. They failed to add big play weapons that can come in and contribute right away via the draft, and that will show next season. With Rodgers being 36 years old and their immediate window closing, it looks like Green Bay’s brass is indicating that they are closer to an 8-8 team than they are to a 13-win team like last season.
The Packers will also play a first-place schedule this upcoming season. Not to mention, the team as a whole will see some regression when it comes to injuries and turnovers.
It is also very fishy that Vegas set their total at 9 wins after the Packers went 13-3 last season. They are definitely thinking along the same lines as I am when it comes to Green Bay. In fact, I see this year’s Packers team being similar to last year’s Chicago Bears team that took a step backwards and finished the year 8-8.
Green Bay under 9 is one of my favorite NFL futures bets of the season.
Minnesota Vikings under 8.5
The Vikings lost a ton of their key members from their defense: Everson Griffen, Linval Joseph, Xavier Rhodes and Trae Waynes, among others.
This year’s squad will be defined by their draft, as they did not have a ton of money to make a big splash in free agency. The issue I find in that is that because of the coronavirus, things are going to be different for a lot of teams this season. These rookies might not get together physically with the team for a while. This will hurt teams that have brought in a ton of new rookies like the Vikings. Yes, you can study online and in Zoom meetings, but it is not the same. Development will be behind for a lot of these rookies.
The Bears have owned Kirk Cousins since he came into their division, and the Lions should have a much better team this year. If Minnesota comes out of the gates slow as I expect them to, and then lose games to teams in their division, it is going to be a long season for them.
Chicago Bears over 8.5
I know people are down on the Bears, but let’s break it down. As bad as their season was last year, they finished 8-8. They also should have won 2-3 of those games, if not for their special teams and other botched opportunities in the final minutes of those games.
But, one thing I know for sure, is that their defense will translate next season. Even with their defensive anchor Akiem Hicks going down, not to mention several other injuries to their defense, they still finished in the top 10 of pretty much every defensive category.
In the offseason, they went out and improved their defense. They drafted a stud CB in the 2nd round, drafted a pass rusher, and more importantly signed a big-time pass rusher in Robert Quinn. The big man is much, much better than Leonard Floyd, who was playing on the opposite of Khalil Mack last season. Floyd being in there allowed teams to sometimes double and triple team Mack. That won’t happen this year with Quinn there.
The team also improved via free agency, and traded for Nick Foles. Saint Nick knows the offense like the back of his hands and is familiar with the entire Bears offensive coaching staff. If he does end up starting, he should be able to come in seamlessly.
The defense will still be nasty as ever, and if Foles or Money Mitch for that matter, can play like a mid-tier NFL QB next season, they should be in the mix for 9 wins. This is my second favorite bet in the division, aside from the Packers under.
Detroit Lions over 6.5
Detroit impressed me with all the moves they made in free agency and via the draft. I like what they did by bulking up on both the offensive and defensive lines. As we all know, that is where the games are won, in the trenches.
Stafford was having an incredible season last year, before his back injury. If he is 100%, this number is way too low, as I have them in the mix for 8 wins. If he is not his old self, then you can kiss your money goodbye betting the over 6.5. That is the risk you take sometimes by betting these futures early. But, all things indicate Stafford should be good to go when the 2020 season kicks off.
This is a make or break year for coach Patricia and Detroit’s front offense, so they went all-in. I think it pays off.
That concludes our look at the NFC North over under bets for the 2020 season. Good luck guys!