Are you ready for some football? A Monday night party? The Chicago Bears head East to take on the Washington Redskins tonight, so let’s breakdown the game from a gambling perspective.
Bears (-5.5) at Redskins; Total: 41
While the Bears’ defense has been as good as expected, the offense comes into this game sputtering, averaging just eight points per game. The spotlight will be on Mitchell Trubisky, and understandably so, since the Bears the only team in the NFL yet to throw a passing touchdown. He should have a good opportunity to do just that against a Redskins’ defense that has allowed a staggering 63 points in its first two games.
The Redskins offense on the other hand, is putting up points. Washington comes into this game averaging 24 points a game, led by their QB Case Keenum. Yes, you read that right, Case Keenum! He comes into this game completing nearly 70% of his passes, and has yet to throw an interception. Keenum also averages more yards per pass than Aaron Rodgers and DeShaun Watson. Not too shabby.
The Bears will be missing a very good player in the interior of their defense in Bilal Nichols. Outside of Nichols, the rest of the team looks like they should be good to go.
The Redskins will be without Jordan Reed, CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and possibly CB Quinton Dunbar. They are also still missing their starting LT Trent Williams.
Take this for what it is worth, but the Redskins are brutal at home during MNF. Washington is 2-16 at FedEx Field on Monday nights and 6-23 on Monday nights overall since 1997.
The public is surprisingly split on tonight’s game, with the Bears only getting about 53% of the action. Typically you’d expect a favorite like the Bears to get hit harder in a MNF spot, but Trubisky and the offense has looked so bad that even the public is not willing to back them in this road spot.
Bears-Redskins Over 41
Six just seems like too many points to lay on the road with the Bears tonight, but the Over is a contrarian play to make tonight. As listed above, Keenum has played relatively well. And, while the Bears rush defense is stout, they have given up some big plays through the air this season.
And, while Trubisky has not, the Bears face a ‘Skins defense that does not pressure the QB like the two previous teams they’ve faced — ranked 17th DVOA with pressure. The Redskins are also ranked last against intermediate passes. Both of those points play right into Trubisky’s strengths. Look for coach Nagy to open up the offense tonight, because if not tonight, then when?
This game looks like a snooze fest on paper, but the game script does bode well for an Over tonight. Good luck on your wagers!