They have been after me to write about parlays. I shy away from this because parlays are generally a sucker’s bet. Lose one play and it’s over. You lost. Don’t get me wrong. I have hit four-team parlays, which pay 10:1, but I’d been drinking most likely and I never bet parlays anymore. Those occasions are luck. The odds/payout are good so if you do bet a parlay, keep it simple. A parlay on a side and the total in a game pays 13:5. Mathematically that is 2.6 to 1. The payouts are relatively standard but they aren’t true odds. For instance, true odds for a two-team (play) parlay would be about three to one. Okay, I’ve now pacified my editor and project manager. We can get down to business.
Last week I did, as Mr. Miagi says in The Karate Kid, “pretty okay.” You must take the statistics into account. Any constant and serious bettor is looking for around a 66-percent win ratio after any juice given back for losses. I would not call myself a sharp but I am committed to the action I get down on. Pot committed in fact. This is my last movie reference. In Full Metal Jacket Gunnery Sergeant Hartman says, “Private Joker is silly and he’s ignorant but he’s got guts and guts are enough.” This would be me. If you’re going to be a bear then be a grizzly. If you’ve ever owed your bookie 10 grand, then you’ll know what I mean. It happens. This is the life we have chosen.
Enough jibber jabber.
Arkansas State at Georgia: Arkansas State has historically been a mediocre team. I grew up there. I know. The number is currently UGa-32.5. I say UGa covers that number with bells on. However, if you think the spread is too big, then take UGa on the moneyline. They will win. This is a fluff game.
Ohio State at Indiana: Technically, this is a rival game and that means it’s a little dangerous but with OSU’s depth and wherewithal I am confident Ohio State will cover -17.5. They might not have made it to the playoff for the National Championship last season but they are still a solid team.
University of Pittsburgh at Penn State: Even after the Sandusky accusations and convictions a few years ago, Penn State has managed to regroup to an extent. Currently PSU is -17. This is another rival game so tread lightly but it seems PSU will cover the number. Last season they did very well so keep that in mind.
The Citadel at Georgia Tech: GA Tech is -27.5. The total is 57.5. This might be the parlay play I would make: GA Tech and the Over. They are both Division I teams but The Citadel is FCS versus Georgia which is FBS. Economically, this means GA Tech has more money for recruiting and national status. I can’t remember ever seeing an NFL player from The Citadel in my lifetime. Those guys are playing football but their endgame is to enter the military and that’s great but it’s not a recruiting tool for football.
The aforementioned games are scheduled at or around Noon on Saturday. Moving on.
After 2 p.m. New Mexico visits Notre Dame in South Bend. Notre Dame is -34.5. The thing that troubles me about this line is their offense is notorious for being conservative: three yards and a cloud of dust. Yet, New Mexico has never had a strong program. I would stay away from this one. My hypothetical on the score is 30-3, Irish.
East Carolina University at Navy: Here’s the thing. East Carolina isn’t known for much more than producing Sandra Bullock. Navy is -7.5. They had a decent season last year. I’ll take Navy for that money. Maybe I would buy it down that half point but, as always, watch the lines moving.
Alabama at South Carolina: The Crimson Tide is -25.5. They couldn’t cover last week why should this week be any different?
Florida at Kentucky: I’m all about home dogs. Florida is -9. Kentucky also had a decent season last year and they are at home. I’d take Kentucky for a small bet. Again, watch how the line is moving. Adjust accordingly.
Syracuse at Clemson: Death Valley can try the soul but simply because Clemson is number one in the country doesn’t make it so. Clemson is -27.5 but Syracuse almost beat them last season. It was in New York but it comes down to a revenge on this game. I like Syracuse.