Now that most of the big free agents have changed teams and the NFL Draft is over, we have a pretty good idea of what rosters are going to look like. After taking into account rosters, SOS, point differential, injuries, new QBs and coaches, I have a better feel for the AFC South over under bets that I like and don’t like for the upcoming season.

Of course now that the draft is over, oddsmakers have also done the same, and adjusted some of their season totals. Here are the most updated totals, but make sure you shop around:

2020 NFL Win Totals

Baltimore Ravens: 11.5

Kansas City Chiefs: 11.5

New Orleans Saints: 10.5

San Francisco 49ers: 10.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 10

Dallas Cowboys: 9.5

Philadelphia Eagles: 9.5

Seattle Seahawks: 9.5

Buffalo Bills: 9

Green Bay Packers: 9

Indianapolis Colts: 9

New England Patriots: 9

Pittsburgh Steelers: 9

Chicago Bears: 8.5

Cleveland Browns: 8.5

Los Angeles Rams: 8.5

Minnesota Vikings: 8.5

Tennessee Titans: 8.5

Houston Texans: 8

Atlanta Falcons: 7.5

Denver Broncos: 7.5

Las Vegas Raiders: 7.5

Los Angeles Chargers: 7.5

Arizona Cardinals: 7

Detroit Lions: 6.5

New York Giants: 6.5

New York Jets: 6.5

Miami Dolphins: 6

Carolina Panthers: 5.5

Cincinnati Bengals: 5.5

Jacksonville Jaguars: 5

Washington Redskins: 5

Buckle up, because I am going to start giving you my division by division breakdown on how I see these totals playing out this season. Up today, our AFC South over under bets for 2020.

AFC South Over Under Bets

Tennessee Titans over 8.5 wins

The Titans surprised everyone last season by coming within one victory of the Super Bowl. While they won’t be able to sneak up on anyone this season, I still like their chances of winning 9 games.

I like that they resigned Ryan Tannehill. He fits that team’s needs perfectly. Mike Vrabel and co. know what their identity is and their style should be able to translate into another winning season.

While going to Minnesota, Baltimore and Green Bay will be tough, I like their schedule as a whole.

If they can stay injury free, they will be contending for the division come season’s end.

Indianapolis Colts over 9 wins

The Colts were very active in free agency and had a very strong draft. The only question mark that remains, at least in my eyes, is their QB position. I know they signed Philip Rivers, but if you watched him play last season, is he really that big of an improvement over Jacoby Brissett?

But, other than the QB position, the rest of the roster looks built to make a deep playoff run. The Colts also have one of the softest schedules in the league, setting them up for double-digit wins this season.

If they can take care of business during that middle stretch against the Jets, Fins, Jaguars, Raiders, and Broncos, they should be able to hit this over. I’ll take the over.

Houston Texans under 8 wins

The Texans biggest problem is still their coaching staff, led by Bill O’Brien. Couple that with the fact that he has not done well as a GM (being nice), and this sets up for a disastrous season.

Yes, Deshaun Watson is amazing, but without ‘Nuk Hopkins, I don’t see this offense lighting it up. And, they got back David Johnson in the trade for Hopkins, but I need to see him perform at a high level before believing that can move the needle when it comes to wins for this team.

The Texans schedule is also very hard, with away games at Browns, Bears, Lions, Steelers and KC outside of their division. They also face five playoff teams from 2020.

Give me the under.

Jacksonville Jaguars over/under 5 wins

The Jags were a mess in 2019, only winning six games. While I enjoyed watching Minshew Magic last season, this roster needs a lot of work. When you look at it as a whole, it might be one of the least talented rosters in all of the NFL.

They will be relying heavily on a ton of rookies, which is not ideal to the coronavirus and these guys potentially missing time on the field.

Their schedule is on the easier side, but I think they will be in a semi-tank mode next season if they start out slow. Unfortunately this number is a little too sharp for me, so I don’t see any value betting on it. I’ll pass, as I have them winning 5 games exactly next season.

That’s it for our AFC South over under bets today, check back tomorrow for more NFL betting picks.