It is almost NBA playoff time! Even typing that makes me jump with joy. Cut me some slack, we have come a long way after everything this year. The playoff matchups are all but set, except for the 1-8 matchup in the West where the Portland Trail Blazers, Memphis Grizzlies, Phoenix Suns and San Antonio Spurs are all vying for either the No. 8 seed or the final play-in spot out West. Tonight’s NBA games on Aug 13 should decide the race for No 8, which makes today’s card even spicier when it comes to our picks.

After doing my research and breaking down the card, there is one NBA bet that sticks out to me, so let’s get to it.

NBA Picks Aug 13, 2020

San Antonio Spurs team total Over 119

This is a must-win game for the Spurs today if they want to keep their chances alive to make the play-in game. San Antonio has gone 5-2 so far in the bubble, exceeding a lot of people’s expectations, including mine.

The Spurs have shifted their offense since LaMarcus Aldrdige went down to injury. They are playing more small ball and it shows in the numbers with them playing at the third-fastest pace in the bubble, at 106.21, per NBA.com. They also have the seventh-best eFG% in the bubble (55.5%).

These stats all look better because of their opponent today. The Jazz will be missing Rudy Gobert, the backbone of their defense, and Mike Conley. Lineups without Gobert and Conley are 8.3 points worse per 100 this season per Cleaning the Glass, and they are putrid defensively, giving up 115.8 points per 100 possessions to opponents.

Look for the Spurs to come out locked in today. This is the perfect opponent for the Spurs, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they dropped 130 today with the Jazz missing Gobert. The high spread scares me a little, so I will go with the safer bet and take their team total over as my NBA pick for Aug 13. Good luck guys.