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MLB Daily Picks, Sept. 30: Wild Card Round

MLB Daily Picks, Sept. 30: Wild Card Round

Day one of the MLB Postseason was a wild one but we’ve no time to rest as Wednesday brings us eight more games to dissect.  Here are my best bets for day two of the action.

Yankees (Masahiro Tanaka) vs. Indians (Carlos Carrasco)

Game one was a bit of a surprise after the Indians’ starter, Shane Bieber, go lit up by the Yankees early and sealing the opening tilt early.


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When all was said and done, Bieber surrendered seven runs in just 4 ⅔ innings and put the Indians in a hole right out of the gate.

Now down one game, can the Indians bounce back Wednesday night in Cleveland?

Masahiro Tanaka will do all he can to make sure that doesn’t happen.  Tanaka posted a 3-3 record in his ten starts this season with an ERA of 3.56.  He saw his fair share of struggles but still managed to put together a solid season for the Yanks.  Tanaka is also pretty lights out when pitching in the postseason with a career ERA of just 1.76 over eight trips to the mound.

The Indians will counter with Carlos Carrasco who had a very successful 2020 campaign.  Ending the shortened season with a 2.91 ERA in 12 starts.  Carrasco is also a playoff stud with a career ERA of 1.64.

The flamethrower will have his hands full with a Yankees offense that has been heating up of late.  Last night’s 12 run explosion was just another of many strong performances at the plate of late. They look like the Yankee team that opened the season on a tear and have the ability to jump on any starter, any given night.


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While I don’t see that happening tonight, the Yankees are clearly the better team and have the all-powerful game one win.  This turns tonight’s tilt into a must-win game for Cleveland.

This is a tough call for me as I think the Yankees have what it takes to make this a quick sweep, but Carrasco is no pushover.

Furthermore, despite an influx of runs last night, I believe we see a much quieter game at the plate tonight.

The Yankees v Indians game was the only one to go over the total last night and I think tonight the bats on both sides quiet down a bit.


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Both Tanaka and Carrasco are playing well and have sub 2.00 ERAs in the postseason and I see no reason to bet against those numbers in this spot.

DraftKings has the total at 8.5 with the under at -110 and this is my first bet for Wednesday night.  I think the Yankees have value on the moneyline as well if you are looking to create an MLB parlay with this game.

Best Bet: UNDER 8.5 runs (-110)

Brewers (Brent Sunter) vs. Dodgers (Walker Buehler)

The nightcap of Wednesday’s MLB slate features the Los Angeles Dodgers hosting the Milwaukee Brewers.

The Brewers will attempt to steal a win on the road in game one by going with a start by committee strategy and employ an opener in this game.

This is generally a strategy that I fade outright and is a strange choice for game one of a playoff series. I realize they are trying to give Brandon Woodruff some extra rest but this is postseason baseball and I believe the Brewers should put their best foot forward.

The starter for tonight was named as Brent Sunter, far from their best foot.

The 31-year old southpaw has done well out of the bullpen but this is a different situation for Sunter to be in.  Opening a game 1 against the favorites to win the Pennant.

Sunter will hope to stave off the league leaders in home runs and finishing with the best overall record.

Los Angeles has lived up to the preseason hype so far, winning 43 games including 10 of their last 12.  The Dodgers don’t just get it done at the plate, their pitching staff tops the bigs in both ERA & WHIP.

The Dodgers are starting their ace, Walker Buehler, who was 1-0 with a 3.44 ERA in a bit of a strange year.  Despite his single win, the Dodgers won all but one of his eight starts.  Buehler has also been phenomenal at home this year, posting a 1.31 ERA in his four games at Dodger Stadium.

Just based on the pitching matchup tonight, the Dodgers would have to get incredibly unlucky to lose this important game one. There isn’t much value on their ML odds so we’re going for a play on the runline.

Best Bet: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-107)

Matt De Saro is a journalist and media personality specializing in sport, specifically sports betting. He has hosted podcasts and web shows since 2014 which aim to educate and inform sports bettors worldwide. Matt has created content, both written & media, for the likes of Fansided, Forbes, Sportsbook Review & YouWager. With a background in statistical analysis and a love of everything sports, he takes an outside the box approach to reporting on the sports betting industry.

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