We are now one-third of the way through the 66-day Major League regular season. Our Matt DeSaro gives his top MLB picks of the Wednesday Aug 12 slate:
MLB Daily Picks Aug 12, 2020
White Sox (Dylan Cease | 2-1, 4.05) vs. Tigers (Matthew Boyd | 0-1, 9.20)
The Chicago White Sox enter this game on the heels of an 8-4 trouncing of Detroit on Tuesday. Eloy Jiminez made up for his embarrassing attempt to catch a fly ball over the weekend with a four-RBI day to lead Chicago’s offense.
The White Sox offense really came alive in this game with Jose Abreu hitting a pair of doubles and Edwin Encarnacion adding a solo home run to the mix.
Chicago is now a very impressive 6-1 in their last seven games on the road and has won 11 of the last 16 games between these teams.
Dylan Cease gets the start for Chicago and appears to have turned things around after a disaster’s first start. Cease rarely goes deep into games but he is coming off back to back solid starts, totaling 11 innings and giving up just two runs. Cease also has a solid 3-0 record with a 3.38 ERA in his starts against the Tigers.
Detroit will look to counter with Matthew Boyd who has not shaken off any of the bad starts he’s had.
It appears there is no corner in sight for him to turn.
Not only has Boyd had issues with his velocity, but his control has also been suspect. The result tends to be a lot of earned runs and Boyd’s 9.40 ERA is proof.
Boyd makes his fourth start of the season and has yet to see the sixth inning. He’s coughed up 23 hits 15 runs and five walks in just 14⅔ innings of work.
Perhaps the scariest number in Boyd’s metrics is the number of runners he’s left on base. In his first three starts, Boyd has stranded a staggering 89 runners. With a fly ball rate of 64.30%, the regression of his strand rate will be hard to watch.
Despite Chicago’s .500 record on the year, they have an extremely capable offense. I like their chances to build off yesterday’s excellent day at the plate and take advantage of a pitcher who looks destined for designation.
This game had double digits written all over it in my opinion.
Sure, Cease has looked better in recent weeks. But, the Tigers offense is always dangerous and Cease is prone to blowups. He hasn’t done enough for me to trust him to keep the Tigers off the board.
The total is at 9 right now and I think we see both teams light up the MLB scoreboard this evening in our first pick for Aug 12.
Best Bet: OVER 9 (+100)
Mariners (Taijuan Walker | 1-2, 5.79) ) vs. Rangers (Jordan Lyles | 1-1, 5.56)
The Seattle Mariners are in desperate need of a win after dropping eight of their previous 11 outings. Despite this, things are looking up for their lineup after scoring 17 runs in their last three matchups.
Taijuan Walker gets the start for Seattle and will really need to turn things around if the Mariners have a shot at this win.
Walker is 1-2 with an iffy 5.79 ERA on the year. His lack of strikeouts is also concerning. Walker has whiffed just 12 batters all season. He started off the season with a decent outing but has followed that by surrendering nine runs in his last seven innings. His last inning of work against the Angels last week, he walked three batters and hit one before the Mariners pulled the plug.
His numbers against the Rangers don’t inspire much confidence either. In 33⅓ innings against Texas, Walker is 2-2 with a 4.86 ERA and 1.62 WHIP.
The Texas Rangers are also struggling this year and really need to put another game in their win column. Texas has gone 6-6 in their last 12 games and are hoping journeyman Jordan Lyles can put a quality start on the board.
Problem is, Lyles is not pitching like the guy who went 7-1 with a 2.45 ERA in limited work last year for the Brewers.
So far in 2020, Lyles is 1-1 with a 5.56 ERA and a paltry eight strikeouts in 11⅓ innings. This is a lot more in line with his career ERA of 5.11 in nine seasons on the mound. Lyles also has crummy numbers against the Mariners to boot with a 1-2 record and a 4.78 ERA.
This is our second game where I’m predicting a double-digit final score on a total of 9.
On top of the sub-par pitching, these teams have been over cash machines of late. The over has hit in seven of the Mariner’s last eight games on the road. Meanwhile, the Rangers have gone over in eight of their last 11 games overall.
Both of these starters have ERAs over five and are too volatile to trust taking a side here. The Rangers bats are starting to perk up and there is enough power on the Mariners side to smack Lyles around. It doesn’t hurt that Globe Life Park is very hitter-friendly.
I pick both starters getting roughed up and will be adding another over to our MLB parlay for Wednesday Aug 12.
Best Bet: OVER 9 (-115)
So, there’s our picks for the MLB games on Aug 12