We’re back with our NFL Week 9 picks, and the slate is packed with a ton of great matchups. The good teams have separated themselves, but when it comes to gambling, we only care about who is good against the spread!
So, without further ado, let’s breakdown our three favorite NFL bets for Sunday! (Our picks in CAPS)
Detroit Lions at OAKLAND RAIDERS -2
If it seems like the Raiders have been on the road forever, it is because they have been on the road forever. This weekend, Oakland is finally back home after playing five games on the road. Their game in London was technically a home game, which is what caused their brutal early-season schedule. The Raiders players and their fans will both be hyped for this home game this Sunday, you can count on that. As you know, there is no place like home.
Matchup wise, the Raiders should be able to put up points in this one against a Lions defense that has lost its steam of late. There are certain games that either propel teams to victory or derail the season. Detriot’s loss to the Green Bay Packers did the latter. After that game, the Lions traded away their captain, Quandree Diggs. That trade did not sit well within the Lions locker room, and you’ve seen it on the field ever since. In addition to the Diggs trade the Lions other safety, Tracy Walker, is dealing with an injury. Darius Slay, Detroit’s best player in their secondary, is also dealing with an injury. Look for big days from both Josh Jacobs and Derek Carr.
I know it is fun to make fun of Jon Gruden sometimes, but he has done a good job coaching this team after the Antonio Brown debacle. The Raiders are top 5 in various DVOA categories and have played hard from start to finish in every game this season. Even in their loss to Green Bay, the game was a lot closer than the final score indicated. I see them clicking their heels three times and winning this game in a shootout.
Houston Texans at JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +2 (London Game)
The Houston Texans come into this matchup riddled with injuries, as five players have already been ruled out. Will Fuller, OL Greg Mancz, CB Bradley Roby, S Tashaun Gipson and CB Lonnie Johnson all won’t be making the trip to London. Basically, the Texans are missing their top pass rusher, two of their three best cornerbacks, and their free safety. Not good against a Jaguars passing offense that is currently ranked eighth in Football Outsiders’ pass DVOA. This all sets up for a huge game for Jags QB Gardner Minshew.
I also like the fact that the Jags are familiar with London, as they’ve played there three times already, prior to Sunday. On the flip side, the Texans have never been across the pond. By now, the Jags have the upper hand when it comes to travel, rest, and how to better deal with jetlag going into this matchup. Hey, every little edge counts. We saw it first hand in the Chicago Bears-Oakland Raiders matchup, where the Bears looked tired after getting in late to London and got pushed around.
With the Texans losing JJ Watt for the year and pretty much all of their secondary missing, Minshew should have time to carve them up like a Thanksgiving turkey. I see the Jags winning this game outright.
Washington Redskins at Buffalo Bills (UNDER 37)
This is an extremely low total, the lowest on the board this week, and understandably so. The Quarterbacks are both factors for this low total. First, the Redskins are starting Dwayne Haskins at QB this weekend.
Haskins looked lost last week when he was pressed into action due to Case Keenum’s injury. Haskins was so bad that his teammate Adrian Peterson basically said that the young QB needs to learn the playbook. That’s like your teacher telling you to read the book again after you handed in your book report. This doesn’t bode well for the rookie, as he has to go up against an angry Bills defense coming off of a loss. The Bills defense is ranked sixth in passing DVOA.
For the Bills, Josh Allen gets the nod. While the young QB has shown flashes in his brief career, he has been wildly erratic and also commits a lot of turnovers. Case in point, last week, when he fumbled the ball twice. Buffalo’s coach, Sean McDermott, knows this and will do what he always does, rely on the run game and his great defense to propel them to a win.
Which is exactly why the Bills, in general, are a good under play. The under is 12-6 in Allen’s career starts. Let’s keep riding that this weekend.
If you are still alive in your survivor pool and haven’t used the Buffalo Bills this season, what are you waiting for? You couldn’t ask for a better layup , as stated above. I don’t see how the Skins put up points in this contest.
Fun underdog parlay of the week:
Tampa Bay Bucs +6 and the New York Giants +7
Risky, but what did you expect…this is an underdog parlay! Pairing those two teams up presents some value.
So, there you have it! Here is to a green weekend, and good luck with your wagers.