Happy Monday! I’m going to write a daily piece that highlights my favorite daily picks on the sports slate.
Friday I finished 2-1. While every day is a new opportunity and I don’t want to get sucked into the past, I think it’s worth reviewing things each day. This will help us get better as we move forward. So, here goes:
* Cleveland Cavs +6 (won) – Won straight up!
* OKC Thunder -1 (won) – Thunder won by 12
* Celtics-Timberwolves under 228 (loss) – Flew over
Now, onto today’s card. The NBA is back and CBB is in full force, so we have some great games to pick from. Don’t worry about researching, we have you covered!
West Virginia -5 at Texas.
I know this line is a little fishy, but there are just too many reasons to play WV tonight.
First, the spot. Texas has won two games in a row, while West Virginia has lost four of their last five games. This has the public a little skewed towards Texas. This also makes the Mountaineers more desperate coming into tonight, which is usually who I like to back.
Also, if you dig deep into the metrics, WV is a much better team than Texas. WV is the No. 2 rated team on Ken Pom when it comes to Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They also have the top offensive and defensive rebounding percentages in the Big 12. WV also defends the 3-ball very well (fourth best).
Yes, WV comes into this game off of some losses, but they lost to TCU, Kansas and Baylor. Nothing earth shattering there.
Texas might also be short-handed tonight, with Jerrico Sims likely out for the season. He was a big part of their season, so a big loss for the Longhorns.
Some sharp money also came in on WV early, moving this line from -4 to -5/ 5.5 in most books. I would not be surprised to see this line hit 6 by game time. Try to shop around, but back Huggins tonight to the bank.
Grizzlies-Clippers under 233
When it comes to the total, it has actually gone down from a starting number of 233.5. I would not be surprised to see this number down to 232 later tonight, so try to grab it when you can. It looks like the sharps have gotten involved. While the public is on the over, the line has moved down, indicating reverse line movement on the under.
The Grizzlies have struggled as of late, and now they are without Jaren Jackson, Jr. JJJ has been great to watch this season, as has the young Memphis core, but their offense struggles without him. Especially from 3-point land. They take and make more 3’s with him in the lineup. In general, their shooting has been in a funk lately, and shooting is the one way to usually beat the Clippers this season.
While LAC has struggled as of late, their defense inside the 3PT line is their strength. I see Memphis struggling to score at the rim and on mid-range shots tonight.
Unless the Grizzlies go crazy from deep, I see this under cashing.
Atlanta Hawks +8.5 at Philadelphia Sixers
I know all about the Sixers road vs. home splits. Philly is dominant at home. On the flip side for the Hawks, they struggle on the road. So why am I on the Sixers?
First, injuries. Most notably to Ben Simmons and Tobias Harris. I know that is already caked into the line somewhat, but so is Philly’s home court dominance.
Harris is questionable, so he might give it a run. If he is out, the Sixers will be with a lineup that has barely played together all season long. Simmons is a huge loss when it comes to pushing the ball and doing all the little things. There is also word that his injury might be serious. That alone might mess with the psyche of the team.
Meanwhile, the Hawks have not been as bad as their record indicates. They are finally fully healthy and their young core seems to be gelling and getting better as a whole.
I know I am going against some trends here, but if Atlanta can just keep from doing their usual 4th quarter meltdowns, I see this game coming down to the last bucket.
Well, that is all folks. Good luck on today’s wagers!