Today’s betting slate includes a huge college hoops card and a five-game NBA slate.
Let’s start with college basketball first, then get into my NBA picks:
PSU at Purdue -5
I love looking for good situational spots when betting college basketball, and this game stuck out the most to me for just that reason. This line is super fishy for a number of different reasons. PSU has shot all the way up to No. 13 in the rankings, yet they are getting five points tonight against an unranked Purdue team? Because of that, the public is pounding PSU at a 70% clip.
If you dig a little deeper, there are a few reasons to like Purdue in this spot. They come into tonight’s matchup winners of three straight and with a 10-2 home season record. The Boilermakers offense has also come alive recently. Purdue also has been balanced on both sides of the ball this season, ranking 38th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and 12th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency via Ken Pom.
I would not be surprised to see a double-digit Boilermaker victory tonight, which is why I am going with the home team in this situation.
Now, onto the NBA…
Clippers at Sixers +1.5
I know everyone is on the Clippers, but I like the Sixers for a few reasons. Despite 70% of the public bets coming in on LAC, the line hasn’t really moved.
Despite Philadelphia’s inconsistent season, they have been nearly unbeatable at home, posting a 24-2 home record at Wells Fargo. In fact, the Sixers home vs. road splits are out of this world. When playing in Philadelphia, the team has the 2nd best Net Rating and has the No. 1 Defensive Rating. The Sixers usually step up at home, as they’ve beaten the Lakers, Celtics and the Bucks there, to name a few.
While Kawhi Leonard is suiting up for the Clippers, they will be without Patrick Beverly, which is a big loss for them in this spot. Los Angeles also does not have a dominant or defensive big man to slow down Joel Embiid, so look for him to have a monster game.
Boston Celtics +2 at Houston Rockets
The public is pretty split on this game, but Boston provides some value tonight, so I am grabbing the points as I see them as a live dog (chance to win outright).
The Celtics are playing their best basketball of the season as they have won seven in a row and are 9-1 over their last ten games. They also get Jaylen Brown back, which is a huge plus in multiple ways.
On the flip side, the Rockets will be missing Eric Gordon, which takes away one of their biggest shooting threats. For a team that already lacks shooting, that will be a big loss for them in this particular matchup.
Jayson Tatum has been awesome all season long. I will take the better and more consistent team in tonight’s spot in this one.