Football is back, baby! With the NFL back, every week I will break down the games and select a couple of wagers that stick out to me.
Week 8 played out well for the most part. For transparency, I’ve gone 24-16-1 ATS in the NFL through Week 9 (TNF) over at sportsintel.com and will keep track in this post weekly. The biggest thing is to trust the process, as it is a long season. There are going to be some ups and downs, but that is gambling for you.
Dogs have been barking lately, which has been fun to watch and from a gambling perspective. After diving into the numbers, I see some good value on a couple of teams this weekend. So, without any more wait, let’s get to it.
Here are my favorite picks for the weekend:
Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts +1
I know the Ravens are coming off of a loss, but I like the Colts in this spot this weekend. The bye really came at a good time for this Indy squad, as they get their best defensive player back in Darius Leonard. Defensively, they are top 5 in DVOA vs. the pass and run. But, the defense goes as Leonard goes, and the stats are there to prove it. We saw it last week and I see it carrying over against the Ravens.
The Ravens lost their best OL in Ronnie Stanley. They will also be missing Marlon Humphrey and Mark Ingram, and possibly others on their defensive front due to COVID-19.
I see the Colts winning this game straight up, so we’ll ride them again this week.
Miami Dolphins at Arizona Cardinals -4.5
Love the Dolphins this year, but this is just a good spot for the Cards. They are coming off of a bye and getting healthy at the right time. The Fins d ate up Goff last week, but Murray’s mobility adds a different dimension for Arizona this weekend and they should be able to score points.
The Dolphins also rank last in DVOA run defense, so look for Murray and Chase Edmunds to have monster games. On the flip side, I just don’t see how Miami keeps up. Last weekend, Miami scored 21 of their 28 points on a fumble recovery TD, a punt return TD, and a 1-yard TD run following a fumble recovery. Now they will be missing their top 2 running backs and going on the road against the 10th ranked DVOA defense in the NFL in Arizona.
Just too much firepower here for Arizona and a bad spot for Miami.
If you are in any survivor pools, first of all, good luck. Those things are impossible because there is always a day where every upset in the book happens. But, we can research and try our best to find the mismatch that looks good for the week.
Last week we hit with the Eagles. Fading the Jets has really been a treat this year, so I am going to go back to the well here with the Patriots. Sam Darnold is out, so I like the Pats in this spot.
So, there you have it for Week 9. Good luck with your wagers and hopefully this sports intel helps with your Sunday NFL card.