Football is back baby! Thursday Night Football was a blast to watch, so I can’t wait for Sunday. This weekend’s slate is packed with so many good games, that it will definitely be entertaining. This year is of course going to be a lot different than year’s past because of the pandemic and lack of preseason games and reps for players, but we still need to do the research to see what angles we can find to make money. So, without any more wait, let’s get to my favorite NFL bets for the weekend.
Here are our three favorite bets for this weekend:
Tampa Bay Bucs vs. New Orleans Saints -3.5
This might be the most watched game of the weekend, and understandably so as we get Brady’s first game with his new squad against Drew Brees and Co. From a betting perspective, I love the Saints in this spot.
The public is all over TB here, but these are the Saints at home we are talking about. They have the advantage on both the offensive and defensive lines (close on this side), which should help them pull this one out in the second half. The Bucs also have a young secondary, which Drew Brees should be able to exploit once they are able to establish the run in the first half. Mike Evans is probably going to miss this game, which will hurt TB’s offense big-time.
While I love Tom Brady, I think it is going to take the Bucs some time before they get humming. The Saints are going to be out to prove a point that they are still the big dogs in the division this Sunday.
Cleveland Browns + 7.5 at Baltimore Ravens
Call me crazy, but I like the Browns in this spot. Last year Cleveland played the Ravens tough in both of their games as dogs, winning one straight up. The Browns are a better team this season, especially on the offensive line. Yes, the Ravens should be able to get some big plays against Cleveland’s weak secondary, but the Browns should be able to run the ball on Baltimore like they did last season. Look for Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb to have big games this weekend.
I also see the Browns coaching change as a huge plus for this squad. Don’t think it can get any worse than their last two coaches, right?
Lastly, there is huge reverse line movement on the Brownse. The game opened at Ravens -8.5 in most spots, but it’s down to 7.5 in most books. While the public is looking at an easy Ravens win, the sharps took the Browns. Time to follow their lead in this game.
Miami Dolphins +7 at New England Patriots
The Dolphins always play the Patriots well, like the last time these two teams met, when Miami won straight up 27-24. While the ‘Fins are in rebuilding mode, they are a better team than they were last year after adding a lot of pieces via free agency and the NFL Draft.
The Pats, on the other hand, not only lost Tom Brady, but a ton of other key pieces due to the pandemic. This is not the same Pats team as years past. And, while I’m a Cam fan, the WR core is weak, so I want to see how he does first before backing him early in the season.
The public is also all over New England at a 70% clip, but the line has come down to 6.5 in some spots. This indicates small reverse line movement on the ‘Fins. As always, make sure you shop around, as I am still seeing some 7’s out there.
I’m riding with the sharps in this one, as I see the Dolphins as a live dog (a chance to win straight up).
Giants +6, Broncos +3
I have a Monday Night Football treat here, as I like both of the dogs to bark Monday. The Broncos are great in Weeks 1 and 2 at home, and the public is all over Tennessee at a 70% clip. Same goes for the Steelers, as everyone is picking them to trounce the Giants (80% of picks). New York was competitive in a lot of their games last season, and I think their offense is just good enough to keep it close.
Survivor Pick: Bills
If you are in any survivor pools, first of all, good luck. Those things are impossible because there is always a day where every upset in the book happens. But, we can research and try our best to find the mismatch that looks good for the week. This week, I’m going with the Buffalo Bills. Their defense is too good to go down to a Jets team that looks like it lacks playmakers on both sides of the football.
So, there you have it for Week 1. Good luck with your wagers and hopefully this sports intel helps with your Sunday NFL card.