Football is back, baby! Week 2 played out just as we expected with some really good matchups. A lot of games came down to the wire, which made for exciting football and insane sweats as a gambler. For transparency, I’ve gone 5-3-1 in Weeks 1 & 2 over at sportsintel.com and will keep track here weekly.
When it comes to Week 3, I see it a little bit like last week, where we are going to get some 0-2 teams vs. good teams and think they have no shot. But, like we said last week, every team is not as good or as bad as their record indicates right now. Think of those two games as their preseason. Thanks to recency bias, we will be able to get some good value on teams this weekend. So, without any more wait, let’s get to my favorite NFL bets for the weekend.
Here are my favorite picks for the weekend:
San Francisco 49ers at New York Giants +4.5
I would take +3.5 like it is now, but locked this bet in earlier this week. If you listened to our podcast on Monday, I had this game circled as one of my favorite picks of the week.
The Niners are decimated due to injuries which actually occurred on this same field last weekend. So mentally I feel like this game is going to affect them as well. I also think they will be sick of the back to back road games and staying in West Virginia and will just be in that frame of mind to get home and get healthy after everything that has occurred. Offensively, they will be without Jimmy Garoppolo, George Kittle, Tevin Coleman, and Raheem Mostert. On defense, they are down Nick Bosa, Solomon Thomas, Dee Ford, and Richard Sherman. Basically most of their playmakers on offense, and the strength of their defense, which is their pass rush.
Even though the Giants are 0-2, they have been in both games. They should’ve beaten my Chicago Bears, and if not for some bad red zone turnovers, had a chance against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Even without Saquon Barkley and Sterling Shepard, I would not be surprised if they won this game straight up.
The public is still on the Niners after all of the injuries, but over 90% of the money is on the Giants.
Packers at Saints -3
I faded the Saints last week by taking the Raiders as my pick of the week. But, because of recency bias, I think we get them in a great spot this weekend at home against the red hot Packers.
The public is all over Green Bay in this one at a 70% clip, but 90% of the money is on the Saints. Can you imagine if this was pre-COVID-19? Sunday Night Football in the Dome, the place would be rocking. We are getting some value here because of that and the Saints loss to the Raiders.
The Packers are a little overrated right now, as they beat two teams with bad defenses and no secondaries. I don’t see them being able to move the ball as easily as they have their first two games. They will also be missing Davante Adams, one of the best WRs in the game and facing a secondary with some real playmakers. Not to mention the Saints D-Line is better than anything GB has faced so far.
Look for Brees and the Saints to bounce back. One thing I love, Payton is 30-18 ATS (62.5%) after a loss. But what I love most about this matchup, is the mismatch between the Saints run offense and the Packers run defense. Look for the Saints to run the ball early and often. I picture Alvin Kamara gashing this Packers defense come Sunday night. Take them now, before this line gets to -4 by gametime.
Bills -2 & Falcons -3
The Rams have a brutal travel spot here, East to West to back East again for this game in a one-week span. I also think LAR is a little overvalued here. The Bills defense is also nasty and should be up for the challenge at home.
This line stinks to me, as you get an 0-2 Falcons team against a 2-0 Bears team but Atlanta is favored? I tend to like fishy lines, so side with Atlanta here. The biggest question is Chicago’s offense. Atlanta gives up 28+ PPG right now, but can the Bears get there? If the answer is yes, the Bears will win, but they might have a hard time keeping up with the Falcons offense. The only thing that concerns me is that Julio Jones is questionable right now. IF he plays, I’d take Atlanta, if not, maybe skip this one.
If you are in any survivor pools, first of all, good luck. Those things are impossible because there is always a day where every upset in the book happens. But we can research and try our best to find the mismatch that looks good for the week.
Last week we survived with the Tampa Bay Bucs. It got tight at the end, but a win is a win. This week there are a few large spreads and mismatches on paper, but I’ve locked in on Indianapolis Colts. I know this will be the most popular pick of the week, but in a year of craziness, I am just trying to survive and advance. I also looked ahead a little bit, and didn’t see many other spots to be able to take the Colts, other than perhaps against the Bengals or the Jags. The Jets are decimated by injuries and the Colts are at home and own the advantages on the oline and dline. I am not overthinking it and trying to keep it going, so please Philip Rivers, don’t throw this one away.
So, there you have it for Week 3. Good luck with your wagers and hopefully this sports intel helps with your Sunday NFL card.