Welcome to our new column where we review the previous NFL week and look at the odds and some games for the upcoming weekend.
So, after two weeks of football, here is the skinny: Favorites are 17-15 ATS, and Overs are 20-12 (63%). If you read this column last week, I wrote about how overs made sense in Weeks 1 and 2 due to poor tackling and to look out for them. I’d expect things to start regressing soon, but it sure is hard betting unders in today’s NFL.
When it comes to bad beats, you have to feel for Cleveland Browns backers. I was one of them, smh. The Browns dominated that game from a statistical standpoint and were up from the jump. Cleveland was up double digits in the fourth quarter and driving, when they turned over the ball. Of course, the Bengals scored and then had a last-minute drive where they went 5/5 on fourth downs to score and get the backdoor cover. Welcome to bad beat city, something Browns backers are all too familiar with.
A couple of quick things that stuck out to me otherwise:
- Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert looked good. I have now officially nicknamed Burrow to BACKDOOR BURROW. I hope I get the credit one day when it gets big!
- The Bears, who are 2-0, could easily be 0-2 if not for one or two plays. But, at the end of the day, a win is a win in the NFL and with now 7 teams making the playoffs on each side this season, their chances to get in are looking pretty good if they can rack up some more wins.
- I thought Cam Newton looked great on Monday Night Football. Was nice to see some of the old Cam back.
- Russell Wilson is the MVP right now. 5 touchdowns on MNF while using a variety of weapons. This is his year barring injury.
- I still can’t believe Atlanta lost that game. Everything that had to go wrong did for the Falcons, which must’ve seemed like deja vu for them. On the flip side, this win could be the season changing moment the Cowboys needed. Their division stinks, so if they can rack some wins together, they will look back at this moment.
- Kyler Murray and the Cards look good. More than anything, they are fun to watch.
- The Raiders looked good on MNF. I’m probably biased because I had the Raiders as my pick of the week, but the offense looked good. Their new stadium looks amazing and I can’t wait to check out a game there soon.
Now, a look at Week 3. First, here are the odds at Caesars:
SF -5 NYG
Ten -2 Min
Chi-Atl -3 (-105)
TB -5.5 Den
KC-Bal -2.5 (-120)
A couple of games stick out right away
- I’m looking at both the New York Giants and the Buffalo Bills this week. Both LAR and SF had to stay out east for two weeks in a row. The Niners line especially stinks and is what I like to call a “fishy” line. They are really decimated right now because of injuries and mentally they might be a little afraid to play on the same field again this week. The Giants hung around with the Bears and the Steelers, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they won this game straight up. With Buffalo, they look legit and LAR is a little overpriced after their win against Philly.
- Lovin the Saints this week. It is all about recency bias. Everyone will be down on them after losing to the Raiders. The public will be all over Green Bay and understandably so, since they are playing good football right now. This is setting up to be a classic Joes vs. Pros game.
Make sure you guys check back later this week for my final picks. Thanks for reading this week’s column, and let’s win some money in Week 2.