Football is back, baby! With the NFL back, every week I will break down the games and select a couple of wagers that stick out to me.
Week 10 was rough, but we are back for some action. For transparency, I’ve gone 25-20-1 ATS in the NFL through Week 10 over at sportsintel.com and will keep track in this post weekly. The biggest thing is to trust the process, as it is a long season. There are going to be some ups and downs, but that is gambling for you.
Dogs have been barking lately, which has been fun to watch and from a gambling perspective. After diving into the numbers, I see some good value on a couple of teams this weekend. So, without any more wait, let’s get to it.
Here are my favorite picks for the weekend:
Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Bucs -3
The Bucs are better on both sides of the ball. TB is the overall No. 1 team on DVOA, and there is a reason for it. Couple that with the fact that the Rams just lost their LT, and I see the Bucs getting to the QB in this one. Pressuring Goff will dictate this whole game. On the other side, look for Tom Brady and company to do their thing and put up points.
The public is on the Rams in this one, but sharp money is coming in on the Bucs. The line is going up, so there is some reverse line movement on the Bucs. I also like that Jerome Boger is reffing this game. Boger + Home teams = wins usually.
Full disclosure, when I wrote this piece, the line was Bucs -3. This line has now moved to 4, but I would still take TB at that price.
New England Patriots at Houston Texans +2.5
The look-ahead line in this game was Texans -2.5, so there is a huge overreaction in this spot since the Pats just beat the Ravens. A huge case of recency bias in this one. Now the Patriots have been installed as a favorite, but I don’t think the line move is justified. A lot of things had to go perfectly for the Pats, especially the rainstorm for them to beat the Ravens.
The public is also all over the Pats here, because the Texans have looked bad the last few weeks. I see Houston being able to move the ball and score points. More than anything, I think they are a live dog, so I’ll grab the points and also hit a moneyline sprinkle in this spot.
If you are in any survivor pools, first of all, good luck. We eked out the Packers last week, which was a real sweat. For this week, if you still have the Steelers left, that is one option. If not, look at the Vikings. They are on a short week, but they come in playing some good football.
So, there you have it for Week 11. Good luck with your wagers and hopefully this sports intel helps with your Sunday NFL card.