Football is back, baby! With the NFL back, every week I will break down the games and select a couple of wagers that stick out to me.
Week 9 was rough, but we are back for some action. For transparency, I’ve gone 25-18-1 ATS in the NFL through Week 9 over at sportsintel.com and will keep track in this post weekly. The biggest thing is to trust the process, as it is a long season. There are going to be some ups and downs, but that is gambling for you.
Dogs have been barking lately, which has been fun to watch and from a gambling perspective. After diving into the numbers, I see some good value on a couple of teams this weekend. So, without any more wait, let’s get to it.
Here are my favorite picks for the weekend:
Los Angeles Chargers + 3 at Miami Dolphins
Every week, the Chargers play in close games. They’ve lost 6 games but have an -11 point differential on the season. If you read this column or watch our pods, you know I’m in love with Justin Herbert. The kid is the goods. Joey Bosa is back this week against a poor Miami OL as well. The other big thing is while I love the Dolphins and their coach Flores, they are due for a let down spot. Why? They have been outgained the last two games and won outright. Yes, those are deceiving numbers sometimes, but still something to point out. The Chargers have not lost by more than seven points all season, so I like them as a live dog in this spot here, where I think they can win the game. Shop around for the best lines, yes, I’d take them at +2 as well.
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears +3
Perfect situation here where we can take advantage of recency bias. The Vikings are on the way up and the Bears have looked abysmal on TV the last few weeks. With the public pounding Minnesota here, Vegas and the oddsmakers in general will need the Bears.
Matt Nagy finally gave up play calling duties to Bill Lazar, which should be a big plus for the Bears, because it can’t get any worse than it was. The Bears were in the bottom three of pretty much every offensive metric over the last two seasons. Sometimes a change is needed, and it should be a big boost for this team Monday night. The other reason I love the Bears is Kirk Cousins. Look up his numbers against the Bears over the past two seasons. I’ll tell you what they are: ugly. The Bears have done well containing him and Dalvin Cook with this same defensive core, so I see the same thing happening on Monday Night football. The weather will be bad too, so if the Vikings go down early, it might be a miserable night for Cousins and co.
I actually think the Bears can win this game straight up, so I’ll take the points. And, if you are feeling frisky, I also suggest a moneyline sprinkle.
If you are in any survivor pools, first of all, good luck. Those things are impossible because there is always a day where every upset in the book happens. But, we can research and try our best to find the mismatch that looks good for the week.
Going for the layup this week in Green Bay, which probably means bad news, as everyone will be on them vs. the lowly Jags.
So, there you have it for Week 10. Good luck with your wagers and hopefully this sports intel helps with your Sunday NFL card.