The first Monday Night Football of 2020 is upon us and Matt has a few player props for you to finish your week a winner.
Ryan Tannehill | OVER 223.5 Passing Yards (-110)
Despite this line opening at 218.5, I am still all in on Tannehill this weekend to go over his passing yards total. The rise in projected yards only strengthens my positive feels about this pick.
Tannehill in 2019 averaged 259.8 yards and eclipsed 250 yards in more than half of his starts. This included a date with Denver where he went for 144 yards, but that was in less than a half of play.
The Titans offense should take a step forward with AJ Brown expected to show some year two growth and Jonnu Smith entering his 3rd season at TE.
Meanwhile, the Broncos secondary on paper is not a strong as they were in 2019 and have now lost stud pass rusher, Von Miller.
This will allow Tannehill time in the pocket and he is deadly when given time to think.
The combination of these two factors will, in my opinion, allow Tannehill to flirt with a 275+ yard game and therefore is a solid play to go OVER his projected total in week 1.
Side note: I also like Tannehill’s TD total of 1.5 to go over. With a clean pocket, he should hit paydirt at least twice.
Jerry Jeudy | OVER 36.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Despite having yet to play a single snap in the NFL, I have a lot of positive feelings on Jeudy in general in Denver. He could very well work his way into being Lock’s number one option as Sutton is dealing with a sprained AC joint.
Jeudy has seen success during training camp and has been especially lauded for his route running and evasiveness.
With his ability to get separation and the expected number of targets, he should be able to nail this over on Monday night.
Saquon Barkley & Derrick Henry | BOTH score a TD (+160)
This fills the obligatory “fun prop” for week 1 of MNF betting. It focuses on two backs who will look to light up the scoreboard in two separate games.
First up, Saquon Barkley. The riskier of the two players IMO considering the defense he is going up against. Yes, the Steelers have a Top-3 defense in the NFL. But Barkley is almost matchup proof and has to be viewed as a Top-2 RB heading into Week 1. He managed eight TD’s last year despite missing time due to injury and love his chances at seeing the end zone tonight.
Henry is a bit of an easier pill to swallow and serves as the ‘lock’ portion of this wager. The Denver defense took a hit during the offseason and lost Von Miller before he could even take the field for a game.
This leaves a gaping hole at the LB position for the Broncos and I expect Henry to find a way to exploit this. I like his chances to break a big run and take it to the house at least once tonight.
These are two of the best backs in the league with each seeing a heavy workload. At +160, this is a great bet to cap off your week of NFL picks.