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Week 10 NFL Props: The Over A Brees At Home

Week 10 NFL Props: The Over A Brees At Home

There is no better way to spice up a week of NFL wagering than with some player props.  Here is a trio of props bets you can add to your card for NFL Week 10 betting.

Sports Intel Week 10 NFL Props Bets

Drew Brees OVER 293.5 Passing Yards (-120) vs Falcons at home
There is a lesson which many fantasy football players have long since learned.  When Drew Brees is at home, he is money on the field.  This applies equally to his NFL props betting value coming into week 10 with the Falcons at home in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome.

Brees returned to action last weekend after missing five games following surgery to fix a torn UCL on his thumb.  In his debut 2.0, Brees put up 373 yards and three touchdowns on 34-for-43 completed passes.  The best part is that he didn’t see any residual effects or swelling following the game and therefore should be considered as close to 100% healthy as a 40-year-old professional athlete can be.


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Brees will welcome the 1-7 Falcons and their 23rd-ranked pass defense, giving up an average of 261.1 YPG.  They have allowed the fourth-most points given up to opposing quarterbacks and are considered one of the worst secondary lines in football right now.  Keanu Neal is on IR and their best corner, Desmond Trufant, is expected to miss his fourth straight game here.

Getting back to why Brees is so amazing at home, let’s go over some numbers.  Over the last five years, Brees has been the best QB in the league at home with a +3.89 +/- in his 44 games at home compared to a -1.59 +/- on the road.

With Brees playing in the comfort of his home dome, and with the Falcons pass defense looking highly exploitable, I think Brees has a strong chance to put up his 3rd 300-yard game in four tries.

Aaron Jones to Score a Touchdown (-120) vs Panthers at home

First off, the Packers are a double-digit favorite at home, so a multiple-score victory is fully expected at Lambeau on Sunday.  This will require the Packers to get creative against a strong Panthers defense and get their ground game chugging along early.


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Aaron Rodgers brought this up himself, saying that the Packers “need to get them more touches”, referring to Jones and Jamaal Williams.  He went on to say “We’ve got to get Aaron 15-20 touches and Jamaal 10-15.  I think that’s when we’re playing at our best.”

This is a great sign for Jones’ usage this weekend against Carolina.  And one that has been working well for the Packers over the last few weeks.  The Packers went undefeated in October and a lot of their offensive success was due to their expanded running game led by Jones.  In the Packers four October contests, Jones averaged just shy of 20 touchers and move than 100 scrimmage yards per game.

Add to this the fact that Green Bay will likely be looking to preserve a late lead, and Jones’ usage could go through the roof this week.  He is averaging 6.0 yards per carrying and has seen 30 touches over his last two games.  That’s good for 90-yards per game in those last two contests.

Sure, he hasn’t scored a touchdown since October 6th, but he ran for four in that game against that win vs Dallas that I’m willing to allow a couple of weeks off.  With more chances coming his way it’s only a matter of time before he finds his way back into the end zone and our I think it happens in NFL week 10.


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Odell Beckham Jr. UNDER 62.5 Receiving Yards vs Buffalo Bulls at home
It’s no secret that the Cleveland Browns have been a massive disappointment this season.  Sure, that could literally be said about any season since they rejoined the league back in 1999, but this season was different.  This season, the Browns had hope.  They came into camp with two legit number one receivers, a pair of high-quality running backs and a young gunslinger under center.

Smash cut to Week 10 and the Browns are 2-6 and find themselves third in a pretty weak AFC North.

At the center of all this has been the struggles of Odell Beckham Jr. who came over to the Browns in the offseason from the New York Football Giants.  He is averaging a paltry 57.2 receiving yards per game after putting up 92.8 YPG in his years in NY.

The Browns offense, in general, has a lot to do with this, ranking 2nd to last in both completion percentage at 58.4% and passing touchdowns per game at just 0.9.

To make matters worse, the Buffalo Bills have a very stingy passing defense this season.  Buffalo ranks third, behind the Patriots and 49ers, in total yards given up in the air per game at just 184.6 YPG.  Last week they allowed the Redskins just 116 yards in the air.  They have yet to allow a single opposing player to eclipse 100 yards receiving and surrender the third-fewest yards per attempt at 6.1.

Coming off a game which Baker Mayfield attempted 42 passes, and which saw OBJ targeted just six times, it’s hard to believe this will be his bounce-back game.  I’m not even sure he has one this season after what I’ve seen in Cleveland. I’m calling for another week of poor offensive play from everyone on the Cleveland Browns, especially OBJ.

That’s us for our props bets in week 10 of the NFL season, some real value this week to earn a good return.

Matt De Saro is a journalist and media personality specializing in sport, specifically sports betting. He has hosted podcasts and web shows since 2014 which aim to educate and inform sports bettors worldwide. Matt has created content, both written & media, for the likes of Fansided, Forbes, Sportsbook Review & YouWager. With a background in statistical analysis and a love of everything sports, he takes an outside the box approach to reporting on the sports betting industry.

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