In case you somehow missed it, the New England Patriots agreed to a one-year deal with Cam Newton. According to ESPN’s Adam Schefter and Chris Mortensen, the contract is a highly incentivized one-year deal. NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport says the deal can reach as high as $7.5 million in 2020.
I’ve been waiting months to say this…but I knew it! I knew that Bill Belichick, or “hoodie” as I like to call him, was laying in the weeds just ready to pounce on Cam when the time was right. Here was one my tweets from March after Newton posted a video of himself working out.
Anyways I digress.
Patriots Add Cam Newton To Roster
Newton, who spent nine seasons with the Carolina Panthers and was the 2015 NFL MVP, suddenly is in a position to become Tom Brady’s successor. We still don’t know if Cam is 100% healthy and it’s not necessarily clear whether he will start right away, but even if his presence doesn’t have an immediate effect on the field, it’s already having one on the betting market.
Here’s how Patriots futures odds have moved since the Cam Newton signing Sunday night (I aggregated a few different websites):
Patriots Odds to Win the Super Bowl
Before signing Cam: 25-1
After signing Cam: 20-1
New England is the third-most likely champion in the AFC behind the Chiefs (5-1) and Ravens (6-1). There are also four NFC teams — the 49ers (9-1), Buccaneers (10-1), Saints (11-1) and Cowboys (17-1) — that are still in front of New England to win it all.
Patriots Odds to Win the AFC
Before signing Cam: 12-1
After signing Cam: 10-1
Patriots Odds to Win the AFC East
Before signing Cam: +140
After signing Cam: +115
This is an fun one, given that the Patriots have won the division every season since their last Tom Brady-less year (2008), and had won it the five years prior as well. In fact, the last time the Buffalo Bills took the division was back in 1995.
While the Patriots have dominated the division for a long time, largely because it is made up of the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins, the Bills were actually favored to win the AFC East before the Newton signing. For the first time in years, it will be interesting to watch the race for the AFC East.
Cam Newton to win MVP
Before signing with the Patriots: 100-1
After signing with the Patriots: 40-1
A lot of the value is gone now, but it will be interesting to see how Cam Newton fits into the Patriots offense. At first glance you might think his style would not be a good fit for their system, but if you dig a little deeper, you might see that he has the chance to thrive in Josh McDaniels’ quick-decision, run-heavy offense.
The Patriots feature multiple running backs in Sony Michel, James White and Rex Burkhead and have an excellent slot receiver in Julian Edelman. Put that together with the fact that you can never count out McDaniels and Hoodie in their abilities to get the best out of their players and put them in the best position to consistently thrive, and you have a recipe for potential success. Of course the big caveat to all of this is that Cam is healthy and back to his old self. That is a big if, but that is why you play the game.
Lastly, the odds of Stidham being the starter when the season kicks off took a dive once the Newton deal was announced.
According to DraftKings Sportsbook, Cam Newton is a -400 favorite to be the Patriots’ Week 1 starting quarterback while Stidham is now listed at +300.
No matter what happens, the Cam Newton saga will be entertaining to watch play outwith the Patriots. First, let’s all hope that we get football back.
** I came up with the above odds by aggregating a few different Sportsbooks. As always, make sure you shop around for the best NFL lines.